Urban Emergency Management Assessment And Optimization Based On Reliability Theory

The assessment of urban emergency management is an important foundational work in urban emergency management, to establish the scientific and rational evaluation model of urban emergency management has important theoretical and practical significance for improving the ability of the city to deal with all kinds of unexpected public events and protect people’s life and property safety. Due to most of the present urban emergency management evaluation researchs were lack of the analysis from the perspective of system reliability, this article put forward a model of urban emergency management evaluation and optimization based on reliability theory.First, This article referring to the previous research results of city emergency capability evaluation index system, and deconstruct system functional structure of urban emergency management based on the system reliability, This article Put forward an emergency management functions system including the prevention of events, the emergency response, the control of disaster, The restoration. Second, establish the reliability model of urban emergency management system based on reliability theory, Realize the quantitative analysis of urban emergency management system based on the fault tree analysis. Third, according to the characteristics of city emergency management system, establish the reliability optimization method by adopt the operational reliability distribution theory. Finally, this method was demonstrated by Beijing as an example. It shows that evaluation and optimization model of urban emergency management based on Reliability can realize the quantitative evaluation of city emergency management capability, the system can be optimized to achieve the reliability in a given target condition.