Study On Optimal Layout And Distribution Of Emergency Resources Under Uncertainty

As the harmful, unpredictability and high influence characteristics of emergency, more and more people focuses on emergency response. Emergency management is an important topic for research community worldwide, especially after recent major disasters. Through the analysis of cause, process, mechanism and evaluation of the incident, we can optimize the rescue results and reduce losses. Emergency management is an important rule of the whole incident control. It is the foundation of rescue operation and the security of rescue effect. As the urgency of emergency management, the rate and quantity of emergency resource supplement is the major factors of rescue efficiency. Consequently, this paper focuses on the emergency resource layout and distribution optimization under uncertainty. Under the background of large-scale emergency, the resource demand of many disaster areas increases sharply. We study the resource layout and distribution problems under uncertain scenario and distribution network at the beginning of the emergency. The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1) Classify the emergency resource coordinated optimization problems, and analyze the objective and principle. Based on the research of emergency resource layout and distribution problems, so we propose to tackle the problems through scenario uncertainty and distribution network uncertainly.(2) For the uncertain scenario at the beginning of the emergency, we compare the scenarios with case store, predict the disaster areas’demand under different contexts. As the multi-level response system of emergency management in China, we establish a bi-level programming resource layout model based on case-based reasoning(CBR). We analyze decision makers rescue objectives in different levels and find that in province level supply ratio is important, yet in city level responsibility is important. Then we give an effective algorithm based on PSO to solve the bi-level programming model.(3) In this section, we study the trade-off between road repair and resource distribution under the situation of undersupply and uncertain road network. We depict the victims’ psychological time risk perception of resource acquisition with Prospect Theory and indicate the victims’loss with resource non-satisfaction degree. Then we establish emergency resource distribution model to minimize the psychological time risk perception and non-satisfaction degree under uncertain road network. The model is solved by GA algorithm.In conclusion, we establish the emergency resource layout and distribution models under uncertainty. The case-based reasoning and behavioral science theory are put into models. This paper proposes new insights into emergency management in China. It has some reference significance in practice, which could provide a quick and effective decision-making plan for the emergency management department.