Analysis Of Economic Factors Affecting Urban Minor Crime In Our Country

In our country, people has reached the 14 years old and under the 18 years old crime is called minor crime, as a special group, minor crime was highly attention by the whole society for a long time. With the interdisciplinary research has become a trend,crime related problems are no longer limited in law, and gradually attention from sociology, psychology and economics scholars. In 1968, since the first time that Becker put forward the concept of criminal economics, after decades of exploration and development by scholars in our country abroad make crime of economics theory and research method is becoming more and more mature.Since the 1990’s, our country minor crime rate is obviously rising, at the same time,economic aggregate, income and consumption level of residents, the income gap between urban and rural areas also showed a stage of rise, and accompanied by social development and economic growth, minor crime is increasingly showing characteristics that the younger, brutal means, collective behavior, diversification and so on, so more and more scholars begin to pay attention to the relationship between the minor crime and economic factors.In the current literature, the economics of minor crime still remain at the theoretical level, the empirical research is significantly less, and has problems such as the existence of economic evaluation indicators are too few or too abstract, the lack of econometric models and so on. Therefore, the impact of economic factors on juvenile crime is more valuable, especially in the field of empirical research, there is still a relatively large research space. Current research on the economics of crime, whether in terms of theoretical or empirical research has a certain depth and is fruitful, can provides a good theoretical framework and empirical model for the economics of minor crime.According to previous scholars’ research experience, residents’ life, family economy is the most closely related economic field to the choice of minors’ behavior. In this paper,the influence of income, income gap, consumption and other representative factors on the impact of minor crime are analyzed and empirical study, including Individual macroeconomic factors as control variables, focus on the relationship between economic factors and minor crime.After reviewing the general research of criminal economics and the research on the economy of minor crime, based on the classic theory of criminal economics-- rational economic man hypothesis and cost income analysis, this paper details the cost of minor crime to implementation cost, opportunity cost and penalty cost, compared with the expected return of crime, and gives theoretical analysis on how the economic factors affect the behavior choice of minor crime. Related factors include economic growth,resident income, income gap, resident consumption, labor market, urbanization,education level. On the basis of reasonable expectations, gives assumptions on the results of the empirical study below, that economic growth, increased income, education will reduce the level of minor crime; the widening income gap, the rising unemployment rate will increase the minor crime; the impact of urbanization rate onjuvenile delinquency may be related to the growth rate of urbanization rate.In this paper, we take the 1990-2012 years related time series data as a sample, the urban minor crime rate as the dependent variable, select the representative indicators of the micro economic indicators and individual macro indicators as the independent variables, on the basis of the previous theoretical analysis to empirical test. In the argument setting, considering the problem of multidisciplinary between economic variables, we select the typical and representative variables as far as possible. Per capital disposable income of urban residents to measure the income of residents and the level of social and economic development; income difference between urban and rural residents to measure income gap; Engels coefficient of urban family to measure household consumption structure; urban registered unemployment rate to measure labor market conditions; urbanization rate reflects the process of urbanization. Considering the differences in the number of variables, under the premise of not changing the economic significance of variables, we make form transformation to some variables,change the urban per capital income and income gap to logarithm.In the empirical model selection, considering the time series data of economic variables are often non-stationary, in this paper, according to the error correction model in the long-term equilibrium analysis of the specific ideas, after the test of the stability of each variable and the co integration relationship is analyzed, use stata12.1 software to carry on co integration regression. Empirical results show that, the per income of urban residents, the income gap, urban unemployment rate, the urbanization rate have significant correlations with the dependent variable, and income gap, the unemployment rate is significantly positive correlation, urban per capital income, urbanization rate show a significant negative correlation. The Engels coefficient of the town fails to pass the correlation test, maybe because of sample size is too small and relevant control variable settings are not perfect, but its theoretical analysis should be meaningful.On the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, combining with the specific research conclusions, we put forward some economic policies and suggestions on preventing and reducing minor crime. Based on the theory of crime cost and benefit,any method that can increase the cost of crime or reduce the proceeds of crime can be used to prevent and control crime. Combined with the current situation of China’s social and economic development, we put forward that optimize the income distribution,narrow the gap between urban and rural areas; improve the employment environment;promote the reform of the minimum wage system; smooth the process of Urbanization;curb inflation, stabilize prices; strengthen legal education; improve the degree of Education; Properly increase the punishment of minor crime, in order to change the current situation of minor crime by the improvement of the economic environment.