Demographic Structure And Economic Imbalances—under The Background Of Social Security Reform:International Comparison And An Empirical Study On China

There are two key words related closely to China’s economic and social development in year2013,namely reform and risk. Delay retirement and two-child policy have been brought up into recent hot debate. All these indicate that, the risk of demographic structure transformation on economic development requires the corresponding reform of social insurance system.This paper first reviewes the research progress both at home and abroad, and summarizes the characteristics of the field. Then with the employment of graphs and tables, we overview basic characteristics and evolutions of seven countries’ demographic structure, social insurance and economic imbalance. In the following part we carried on the empirical test of inner side-and outer side-economic imbalance effect of demographic structure with Panel data. There are at least four conclusions. Firstly, countries’demographic structure shows obvious echelon arrangement with an obvious and general aging trend. Secondly, Developed countries have higher and stable level of social insurance, while developing countries the lower and unstable level of social insurance. Thirdly, internal and external economic imbalances are same in nature, which are mutually reinforcing; however we should put more attention on internal imbalance for it is the intrinsic factor. Last but not least, social insurance system should be perfected to ease the elder dependency burden’s promoting effect on internal and external economic imbalances.