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Statistical Study On The Demographic Dividend To Promote Economic Growth In Perspective Of Human Capital Improvment And Demographic Structrue Transition

Posted on:2014-01-17Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:B C YangFull Text:PDF
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In the process of exploring the source of economic growth, the mainstream regards that capital, labor, technological progress and institutional innovation are the main drivers of economic growth. Since China embarked on the path of reform and opening up, economy maintained rapid growth, at the same time, the population has also undergone a rapid transformation, demographic dividend theory is a cross research field of demography and economics, has gradually become the focus of attention. The traditional demographic dividend theory thinks that, with the transition of a demographic structure, there has been a larger proportion of working-age population, a lighter social burden, and then led to a higher labor participation rate, savings and investment rates, thus generating high economic growth. However, in the process of demographic transition, along with the population quantity, population quality, population structure, population distribution and other aspects of the transformation, these transformations will provide favorable conditions for the development of economy, so traditional demographic dividend theory does not fully reflect the demographic transition contribution to economic growth. This article, based on expanding connotation of demographic dividend, demographic quantity dividend model, demographic quality dividend model and demographic structure dividend model were set up, in the process of demographic transition, exploring each factor contribution to the economy in theory and practice, the result shows that:Since1970s, the demographic quality dividends contribute to economic growth the largest; Demographic structure dividend followed, urban and rural structure is the largest, the structure of employment population is followed, population age structure contribute to a minimum, and the aging increasingly obvious impediment; demographic quantity dividend contribute to a minimum, and the trend shows that decreasing year by year; All in all, this thesis includes the following six parts:The first chapter is an introduction, describes the demographic dividend theory research background and significance, established the framework for a comprehensive study of this paper, research methods, innovations and shortcomings.The second chapter is based on the theory and literature review, the main theoretical foundation of economic growth theory, the theory of demographic transition; On this basis, reviewed existing research on the meaning of the definition of the demographic dividend, the relationship between economic growth and the demographic dividend, and the duration of the demographic dividend, by summarizing the shortcomings of existing research, and starting this research.The third chapter, expanding the connotation of the demographic dividend, including demographic quantity dividend, demographic quality dividend, demographic structure dividend. At the same time, analyzing the current situation of Chinese demographic dividend. The forth chapter, analysis of the demographic quantity dividend, demographic quality dividend, demographic structure dividend. The effect on the transmission mechanism of economic growth, and explore the demographic dividend to economic growth required conditions.Chapter V, for empirical research, through the establishment of demographic quantity dividend model, demographic quality dividend model, demographic structure dividend model, researching all various factors of population on economic growth of output flexibility and degree of each factor’s contribution to the economy. And the results of this study were compared with other existing research. On the basis of forecast the trend of population development in our country, and these changes on the impact of the economic development in our country in the future.The last chapter, conclusion and related policy suggestions.
Keywords/Search Tags:demographic quantity dividend, demographic qualitydividend, demographic structure dividend, economic growth
PDF Full Text Request
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