A Study On Real Effects Of The New Family Planning Policy

In November of 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the CPC decided to start the implementation of the selective two-child policy, which refers to the two-child fertility policy for couples where either the husband or the wife is from a single-child family(hereinafter referred to as “selective two-child” policy). After that, there is not a baby boom across China. In 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the CPC decided again to exert the full implementation of the policy that a married couple can have two children, that is the universal two-child policy( hereinafter referred to as “universal two-child” policy) on October 29 th to further improve the reproductive fertility of the whole nation. In two years, Chinese central government has made two major adjustments on the family planning policy. It is mainly caused by the current aging population, shortage in the labor force, the high sex ratio at birth and other serious population-related problems. These two adjustments policies will play an active role in promoting Chinese economic development, adjusting population structure and tackling problems of labor supply. Meanwhile, other problems will also appear, such as the crowed fertility, the following education, health care, medical treatment and other social security issues of the new generation. It is known that the policy adjustment will exert an impact on the issue of "two children" fertility. In details, what is the size of target population under the influence of the implementation of the new family planning policy? How many of them will plan to give birth to the second child? What factors influence their reproductive willingness?In this thesis, the writer takes Taishan District for example to investigate the reproductive willingness of the target population under the new family planning policy and analyze its influential factors. According to the statistics, whether either or neither of one couple is from a one-child family, their reproductive willingness is equal(separate couples64.79%, non-child couples 66.24) mutually. However, it is lower than those people with ideal children number(1773 people assume it ideal to own two children is two children,with the reproductive willingness of 79.20%). Whether his or her first child is a boy or a girl, respondents are more prone to be rational at the gender of the second child. Besides,they show more preference for girls than boys. As reference to the gender of the first child,majorities of them are rational at the gender of the second child. Then, they obviously prefer to have both a son and a daughter. After analysis, the writer finds that both the respondents’ ages, their career backgrounds and ages of their elder children have had a significant impacton the reproductive willingness. The birth statistics show that the baby boom does not exist in Taishan District after the implementation of “selective two-child” policy. And the number of new born population is increased steadily with a reasonable birth sex ratio. Also,the writer finds out existing problems, analyze the impacts on family planning of fulfillment of “selective two-child” policy and propose some advice for the problems as a reference for the smooth implementation of “ universal two-child” policy.