The Analysis Of Social Ecological Trap And Restoration In Minqin County

Social-ecological traps refer to the irreversible situation that the coupled social and ecological system leads to undesirable consequences. Because the coupled system can affect the trajectory of development in each one, the research of social-ecological system is capable of revealing the comprehensive feedback mechanism in the complex system that can be found in practical problems. Minqin County, as the typical agricultural society in China’s arid and semi-arid region, suffers from the serious ecological problems:water scarcity and land degradation, which deeply threaten the sustainable development and further the ecological security in China’dryland. In this paper, the system dynamics is employed to illustrate the key social-ecological system (agriculture production, water use and labour forces) for Minqin County, and we attempt to Figure out how the price of agriculture productions and labour forces influences on the local water resources use. We also model the trend of the system during 1991 to 2003 by controlling the key factors that have policy implications, and thereby evaluating the effectiveness of ecological restoration measures. Based on the results, we find:1, the relationship between the agriculture products price and local soil moisture is nonlinear, showing the self-control ability of system; 2, the increase of cotton and wheat price has little effects on the water table; 3, local underground water can be resupplied when fruit price increasing; 4, price of oil products increasing may pose the threat on local water balance;,5, when conducting the water-saving irrigation, mechanization of agriculture development, water transformation from upward stream can benefit the local water balance while the ecological migration may have less effects. This research is helpful for policymakers to further understand the coupled complex system of Minqin Country, and make the more effective socio-economic policies.