Simulation Study Of Chinese Social Stability Risk Monitoring System Based On System Dynamics

Social stability risks may lead to social conflicts,disrupt social order and thus affect social stability.Since the reform and opening up,Chinese social development has been in a period of transition for a long time,and the social structure is in a critical period of transformation and reorganization.In this process,the traditional society is disintegrating,the social structure is differentiated and imbalanced,and the modern society is developed.There may be risks of social stability and affecting social stability.General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly stated that "three not only and three but also" in the speech of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: we must be not only highly vigilant against the "black swan" incident,but also prevent the "grey rhinoceros" incident;To get started,we must not only have a high tactic to deal with,but also resolve risk challenges;we not only must fight well prepared battles to prevent and defend against risks,but also must play a strategic active battle to turn risks into dangers and turn dangers into opportunities.In order to monitor social stability risks in a risk society and predict the impact of policies on future changes in social stability risks,this article attempts to build a social stability risk monitoring system that can be affected by both the internal environment and policy behaviors to monitor social stability risks.At first,this article defines the relevant concepts of social stability risk,and then conducts some research on the influencing factors and related laws of social stability risk based on the gray correlation model,so as to clarify the boundary of the overall social stability risk monitoring system.Then,based on the system dynamics method,I establish a causal feedback graph of each subsystem and a flow chart of each subsystem system;then use the standard deviation method to determine the weight of the indicators and determine the quantitative relationship between the indicators;and then add the coordination indicators between each subsystems to complete the construction of a social stability risk monitoring system.Next,the historical simulation method is used to compare the model's prediction accuracy with the real value to verify the accuracy of the model.The model is also subjected to a sensitivity analysis to verify the sensitivity of the system's output changes to the system parameters.Finally,simulations of policy adjustments were conducted to analyze the impact of each policy adjustment on the overall social stability index,to put forwardthe policy recommendations for regulating social stability risks.