| The resource-based economy often leads to resource-based region into the plight of the "resource curse", and transition is the only way to achieve sustainable development, Low-carbon economy not only put forward a new requirement for the transformation of resource-based economy, but also provides a new opportunity. Shanxi Province is a typical coal resources-based economy province in China, its carbon emissions and carbon emissions per unit of GDP are located in the front in the whole country. Low-carbon transition of economy in Shanxi provinve is not only the own internal demand, but also the external needs of the national carbon reduction targets. Based on these, this paper expands the study in accordance with the research ideas "status quo analysis-the restructuring factor analysis-scenario analysis of transition-the transition path analysis". Firstly, the economic development and carbon emission status of Shanxi Province during1995and2010are analyzed. Secondly, this paper analyzes the influence of economic size, industrial structure, energy structure, technological progress, population size, government regulation for the economic low-carbon transition using LMDI method. Thirdly, this paper comparatively analyzes the12kinds of "GDP-carbon emission intensity" scenarios. Finaly, four transformation pathes are put forward from industrial structure, energy structure, technological advances, and government regulation aspects. The main conclusions are as follows.(1) Generally speaking, the economy of Shanxi Province was rising from1995to2000. Compared with the national existence, there are several problems, for example, relatively slow pace of development, the GDP growth rate fluctuations, the high proportion of secondary industry and relatively stagnant development of tertiary industry, high proportion of resource-based industry output in industrial added value and shrinking of manufacturing industry after2000.(2) Overall, carbon emissions of Shanxi rose from3711.72×104tons to8877.47×104 tons during1995and2010, and the annual growth rate was6.21%. The proportion of Shanxi province’s carbon emissions fluctuated between4.5%and6.5%, which was significantly higher than the proportion of its GDP in national GDP. The per capita carbon emission was rising wavely, the carbon intensity was waving down, and both of them were far higher than the national average level. Coal mining and washing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, oil processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electricity, heat production and supply industry industries constitute more than50percent of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province.(3) Scale of economies, industrial structure, energy structure, technological progress, population size, and government regulation are major factors for the transformation of coal resources-based economy. The industrial structure is a two-way pull factor, scale of economies and population size are restraining factors, and other four factors are driving factors. For Shanxi Province, economic scale and population size are restraining factors, and the influence of economic scale is particularly obvious; Technical progress is always disincentive to transformative progress, but it’s contribution rate should be enhanced; the energy structure change obey the energy structure evolution rule in the nearly10years, and have a relatively stable driving effect to carbon emissions; Industry structure showes instable influence on the carbon emissions, and it is the key factor for the economy of low-carbon transition in Shanxi Province.(4) In the tweleve "carbon emissions-GDP" scenes, the A4-B2scenario is ideal scenarios under the view of carbon emission reduction priority, in which the annual growth rate of carbon emission intensity is-4.33%and the GDP annual growth rate is7%. The A4-B3scenario, in which the annual growth rate of carbon emission intensity is-4.33%and the GDP annual growth rate is13%, is the best vision. Besides, adjusting and optimizing industrial structure and energy structure, increasing the contribution rate of technological progress and strengthening the contribution of government regulation are the effective pathes for economy low-carbon transformation for Shanxi province. |
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