Research In Quadri-Carbon Modeling And Scenario Simulation Of Low-carbon Economy In China

To reduce the greenhouse gas and achieve the aim that "compared to 2005, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in the year 2020 will decrease by 40% to 45%", development of low-carbon economy is the only way for the economic transition in china. As a complex system, low-carbon economy involves various fields, including policy,economy,environment,technology,management,etc.Development of low-carbon economy faces many difficulties and challenges, especially for China with a large population in a crucial period of industrialization process now. Different economic development paths and policy orientation have great impact on energy demand and carbon emissions. How to identify barriers to prevent the development of low-carbon economy in China, straighten out the hierarchical relationships among the barriers, and to seek harmonious development path between economy and carbon emissions is the purpose of this thesis.From several fundamental theories, including energy supply, environmental change, sustainable development, circular economy, etc., and taking low-carbon economic research and practice status in China and abroad into account, this paper conducts the following research work on low-carbon economic development path and Scenario analysis in China.(1)It is of important strategic significance for the development of low-carbon economy in China to straighten out the hierarchical relationship among the barriers. This article summarizes 15 barriers which prevent development of low-carbon economy in the whole process, analyzes the interrelationships of the barriers to obtain the five-level ISM-based model for low-carbon economy development in China by application of interpretive structural model, and illustrates that the major affecting factors to prevent low-carbon economic development in China include rough type of economic development, lack of a complete low-carbon policy framework, large population and lack of low-carbon awareness and lack of research personnel or trained manpower in the field of low-carbon. The above conclusion will help to provide scientific basis for decision making on development of low-carbon economy in China.(2) The choice of low-carbon path has significant influence on future economic development and carbon emissions in China. Based on the general characteristics of carbon emissions in China, from the angle of carbon source - carbon sink, this paper builds Quadri-Carbon model of low-carbon economic development in China. Though the model, mainly regarding carbon consumption, carbon utilization and conversion, carbon sink construction and carbon capture and storage as the research objects, this article summarizes and analyzes the current situation of energy consumption and carbon emissions in various areas to obtain the iconic characterization indicators of low-carbon economic development in China and concrete meanings of these indicators in all fields. Based on above research, the writer performs scientific analysis and demonstration on low-carbon development path which can give consideration to both energy saving and economic growth in China.(3) As an important part in low-carbon economy research, scenario analysis provides prediction and verification basis for low-carbon economic development path. This paper builds the characterization indicators of low-carbon economic development in China with application of Quadri-Carbon Model, performs some research on the emission reduction potential of the corresponding indicators, and takes this as scenario analysis framework and parameter settings. In addition, based on three scenarios of low-carbon economic development in China-base scenario (BS), low-carbon scenario (LCS) and frustrated low-carbon scenario (FLCS), this paper stimulates quantitatively the low-carbon development level in 2050 in China by utilization of LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system) model .