| The exchange rate is one of the important economic variables in the openeconomy. And it is also one of the hot issues in the field of international finance. Thestructure of export commodities has been studied in the field of international trade. Inthe context of the RMB exchange rate appreciation and increased volatility, this paperdiscusses how the structure of export commodities in Guangdong Province.changesand the reason of this change.The industrial structure is the fundamental reason affecting the structure ofexport commodities.Exchange rate fluctuation is an important cause of changes in thestructure of export commodities. Based on the theory and literature analysis, theauthor outlines the mechanism of the impact of exchange rate changes on the structureof export commodities.Exchange rate fluctuations change trade flows of the varioustypes of export commodities, resulting in changes in the structure of exportcommodities. Since processing trade is more sensitive to fluctuations of a country’sexchange rate. For this reason, the author has built the model describes the verticalindustry trade response to exchange rate.fluctuation from the perspective of verticalindustry trade and global production value chain.After30years of reform and opening up, Guangdong foreign trade early startedfrom three to fill and then experienced rapid development. Now Guangdong foreigntrade makes effort to transform and upgrade. In the early1990s capital-andtechnology-intensive products exports increased rapidly, more than the traditionalexports of labor-intensive products in Guangdong Province. Although in the past20years, the largest proportion of capital-and technology-intensive exports. Compared totrade specialization coefficient, TSC, in Guangdong province, comparative advantageof the traditional labor-intensive exports in the international market is higher than thecapital-and technology-intensive products. After RMB exchange rate reform in1994,Guangdong’s export commodities are impacted more obviously by exchange ratefluctuations. To some extent, the exchange rate changes will affect transition effect ofGuangdong foreign trade.Based on the summarize of the mechanism of the relation between RMB realeffective exchange rate and export commodity structure, we apply he VAR model toanalyze the correlation of the RMB exchange rate and export commodity structure.The results from the VAR model, pulse function and variance decompositionminor show that there are just a little relationship. During the first two period, they arenegatively correlated. The appreciation of the RMB will just result into small declinein the proportion of exports of machinery and electronic products. It is possible thatthis dues to the lack of international market pricing and competition of mechanicaland electrical products of Guangdong.This paper also uses panel data to empirically analyze the impact of real effectiveexchange rate of RMB appreciation on exports of high-tech products in GuangdongProvince. The results show that there is equilibrium relationship in the long-runbetween the RMB exchange rate and the proportion of Technology products, theproportion of tertiary industry, dependence on foreign trade. The appreciation of theRMB is not conducive to the Guangdong exports of technology products. This impliesthat there is too much processing trade ingredients in the export of high-tech productsin Guangdong province,. In addition, there is a positive correlation between theproportion of tertiary industry in Guangdong province and technology products.Based on theoretical and empirical analysis, the author believes that the appreciationof the RMB can contribute to improving the competitiveness of export commoditiesin Guangdong Province, and contribute to the transformation and upgrading ofGuangdong foreign trade. Finally, From the industrial chain system and FDI twoperspectives, suggestions are given to improve the competitiveness of exportcommodities in Guangdong Province, and to optimize the structure of exportcommodities. |
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