Influence Of The Fluctuation Of Exchange Rate On The Structure Of Manufacturing Industry In Guangdong

RMB exchange rate policy is the important policy of macroeconomicregulation. Sincethe reform and opening up, conflict and external balance often influenceChina’s economy,which cause controversy aboutexchange rate system. When the RMB exchange rate is on therise with the realistic background of social employment facing enormous pressure, the futherstudy ofthe impact of exchange rate changes on industrial structure has important theoreticaland practical significance to realize the economic equilibrium and development in china. Butin recent years a big appreciation of the RMB brings a series of shocksto the economydevelopment, which will inevitably influence the development speed and GuangdongProvince manufacturing industry structure adjustment. In this context, the impact of the RMBappreciation on the GuangdongProvince industrial structure, not only can clear themechanism the impact of RMB appreciation of manufacturing industry, but also have someadvice of how to have further development, adjust the structure of manufacturing industry inorder to make manufacturing industry play an important role in expanding employment ofGuangdong Province and the direction and policy recommendations for the government.This paper will firstly research on the relationship between exchange rate changes andtheemployment of domestic which the foreign scholars were expounded, andthe aboveviewpoints are summarized; defines the nominal exchange rate, real exchange rate,employment and other related concepts, meanwhile, introduces the effects of exchange ratetheory on employment, including the theory of aggregate demand, capital substitute laboreffect, Marshall Lerner condition.According to the theory above, study themechanism on theimpact of RMB appreciation onindustrial structure, normative set forth in how RMBappreciation affect the manufacturing industry.Secondly, use industrial structure data ofGuangdong Province to carry out empiricalanalysis. Test for stationarity, cointegration test, Granger causality test, the OLS method areused to study how the RMB appreciation effects the degree of manufacturing employmentofGuangdong province.Finally, the theoretical analysis and empirical testingconcluded: First, the RMB effectiveexchange rate would increased proportion of low-skilled manufacturing in Guangdongmanufacturing. Second, the RMB appreciation has different effects on different industrysectors: There are conducive to the development of labor-intensive industries.