An Empirical Study About The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability To International Trading Of Guangdong Province

Applying related monthly international trade data of Guangdong province,this paper using empirical analysis to discuss the impact of exchange rate variability to international trade of Guangdong province.This paper made research of two problems:Firstly,whether the exchange rate variability influenced the import and export trading balance of Guangdong province dramatically;Secondly,whether the exchange rate variability influenced the export products structure largely and accordingly affected the trading upgrading of Guangdong province.Regarding to the empirical research of the impact of exchange rate variability to international trade of Guangdong province,this paper applied ARDL model(one kind of dynamic econometrics model for stationary time series) to do the research,and then applied Granger causality test to analyse the relationships between different variables.The empirical research results showed exchange rate variability influenced trading balance,meanwhile influenced export products mechanism of general trade and processing trade.The correlations between exchange rate variability and foreign trade had stepped up the developing stratagems adjustment and trade-increasing methods conversion of Guangdong province.The paper finally combined the background of worldwide economic crisis when all the consumer market becoming decreased,suggested how the outer- toward economic Guangdong province immune itself from suffering decreasing economic condition and develop its international trade better.