Study On Riskassessment And Channel Choosing Of Important Energy Resources Import In China

Nowdays, the degree of dependence on foreign oil in China is always growing; naturalgas and coal’s import quantity in our country is more and more, the energy risk is alsobecoming larger. So, systematically researching the energy import risk and ensuring theenergy import security in China should be regarded as an urgent priority, while the researchabout energy import risk is a few, and more focus on the oil, there is little the study that placethe coal, oil and natural gas and choosing-channel into an entirety. In view of this, thedissertation reviews systematically the domestic and foreign research, and studies the riskAssessment and channel choosing on important energy resources import in our country bytheoretical and empirical, qualitative and quantitative analysis, the main results of the researchare as follows:(1) Based on analyzing the current import situation of three kind of important energyresources, the dissertation systematically sumrizes the main import source of three mainenergy and transport channel contained sea and land in our country; and chooses31mainsources and12channels from them. These works play a fundmental role on the assement ofimportant energy resource import risk and choosing channel in China.(2) In this dissertation, based on the identifying and analyzing the main factors affectingsource risk and channel risk, the risk assessment index system and model are separately set upand scoring criteria is certained by a formal discussion with experts, and the risk state of31major import sources and12transport channels are assesed with Matlab.(3) Combined with evoluation results, this dissertation make suggestions on choosingchannel of energy import in our country. Including: Paying attention to cultivate and deepenenergy cooperation with the lower risk areas; strengthening ties and expanding energy tradewith the general risk areas; Choosing carefully, and balance the energy intertests with higherrisk areas; Consolidating and improving the diversification of transport channels, Solvingeffectively the security problems of the import channel; Strengthening the energy diplomacywith regions of our channel passing through to ensure smooth transportation of energy imports; Incresing the comprehensive transport capacity and establish a viable militaryprotection mechanisms.The above results will provide more important reference value for China’s importantenergy import risk assessment, and help government and companies make a scientific andrational decision.