Study On Influence Of Import Price Fluctuation Risk On Source Distribution Of China’s Pork Products Import

In the consumption of meat in China,pork products accounted for more than 60%.And with the people’s life quality improving continuously,the per capita consumption of China’s pork products are increased significantly.Domestic pork products are difficult to meet the increasing consumer demand,leading to continuous expansion of China’s pork products imports.It is worth noting that with the rising of China’s pork products imports,the import of pork products market pattern has changed dramatically at the same time,import source layout is plural.In pig offal import market,the United States import price is higher,but its pig offal market share has been in a dominant position;Canada and Denmark’s import price is lower than others,however the market share has been in a relatively inferior position.The import of pork products are relatively homogenous,however pork products imports does not come from a single country,especially when the price of one country is continuing lower than others,the country’s share is still not in a leading position.From the angle of the production cost minimization and the profit maximization,pork products differentiation import demand is mainly decided by imported price level and total import expenditure.However,the export price of different sources of pork products is time-varying,importer faced different price fluctuation risk from countries of origin.But the risk of price fluctuation is often ignored by researchers.In view of this,under the background of the pork products market structure changes,urgently need to standardize the research and rigorous empirical analysis based on the discussion on Chinese pork imports import price risks affecting the layout of the market.The content of this paper includes the following aspects:first,reviewed the theory of risk attitude,import demand function relevant classical theory,and analyzes the domestic and foreign scholars in related fields of the existing research results and the common research method,to lay a good foundation for the research of this paper.Secondly,this paper expounded the status of China’s imports of pork products.And then is the empirical research part of this article,this article selects monthly data samples of 2007-2013,using BEKK-MGARCH model to estimates import price fluctuations of the fresh frozen pork and pig offal from different source country.Then establish the pork product differentiation import distribution model,and then using the SUR method,empirical the differentiation demand model of China’s fresh frozen pork and pig offal import.Finally,summarizes and analyzes the empirical results,the main conclusions are following:First,in addition to imports,import price level as well as the influence of seasonal factors,the import price volatility risk is an important factor that affects China’s pork products import source layout.As risk aversion and rational person,the greater the risk of a country’s import prices,the country’s import market share will be smaller.Dependence on imports but price risk importers imported products and the impact of a positive correlation.In fresh frozen pork imports market,Canada and France is affected by the price risk significantly;In the pig offal import market,Canada,Denmark,France,and the share of imports are affected by the price risk.The lastly,on the market of China’s fresh frozen pork import,importers are strongly affected by the price level.United States can have a larger market share because of the price advantage;Importers are affected by the price volatility risk factors in the pig offal import market.Due to price risk factors,Even though the Canada and Denmark import price is lower,market share is not in a leading position.Mainly because the importer for the risk averse rational man,pig offal and high dependence on imports,the risk of a greater impact on the price of imported market.On this basis,proposed targeted policy recommendations to promote the large-scale farming,and promote import market diversification,reduce import dependency,improve the price risk monitoring and strengthening the country’s supply of market information collection.