Study On Influence And Countermeasure About TPP To China

By2013, the Trans-pacific Partnership Agreement, namely the TPP, already has12members, and may expand to13in the near future which include South Korea. Although at present China has not been invited to join the TPP, TPP13members play an important role in China’s agricultural products trade. The analysis of TPP13impact on China’s agriculture is helpful to the Chinese government to develop countermeasures to improve the international competitiveness of China’s agricultural products.This article firstly analyzes the tariffs and trades of the agricultural products between China and TPP members.Secondly, with the GTAP version8th database, this paper aggregate the129nations and57sectors into22nations and23sectors respectively. Finally, the simulation of dynamic GTAP model was carried out on the following two policy options:(1) TPP13FTA will be established in2025;(2) ASEAN10+6FTA and TPP13FTA will be established in2025at the same time. The economic effects of the two policies are analyzed from the perspective of macro economy and agricultural sector.Results show that the establishment of TPP13FTA is helpful for most of TPP13members to increase GDP, import and export, social welfare and terms of trade have. The benefits for Malaysia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea’s are larger, and that for USA is smaller. But China and other non TPP13memebers will suffer from the TPP13by the judging from negative macroeconomic indicators. Due to the trade creation and trade diversion effect, the output and net exports of departments with the traditional comparative advantage will increase for TPP13members, such as grains in the United States and Australia, fruits and vegetables in Vietnam, vegetable oils and fat in Malaysia, sugar in Australia, plant fiber in South Korea, beef and mutton in Australian and the United States, pig meat in Canada, aquatic products in Japan, milk products in New Zealand and Australia’s, silk in South Korea, etc. However, China’s main export agricultural products to TPP13members including fruits and vegetables, pigs, poultry and aquatic products will suffer from the set up of TPP13. In addition, China’s production of rice, wheat, other grains, vegetable oils and fat, sugar, plant fiber and so on also will reduce.In order to eliminate the negative impact of TPP on China’s agricultural production and exports, this paper suggests that China should strengthen the cooperation in East Asia, especialy promoting the negotiations and building of ASEAN10+6FTA The establishment of ASEAN10+6FTA will have a positive impact on China’s macro economy, and is helpful for China to increase the output of rice, other grains, vegetables, fruits, oilseed, sugar and fiber output as well as is helpful to reduce oupt looses in vegetable oils and fat and aquatic products. In addition, China should provide agricultural sector with more technology and financial support, and in order to further improve the quality and safety of agricultural products in China as well as China’s reputation and competitiveness in the international market of agricultural products, it is advisable to develope and implemente the international standards of animal and plant health inspection and quarantine system and food safety system.