Exponential Smoothing Methods Used In The Distribution Of Refined Oil Demand Forecast In Kunming Market Of Sinopec

When compared with the petroleum product consumption market, the logistics distribution rule of petroleum product also has obvious trends and characteristics. For this reason, predicting the demand of oil logistics distribution can directly help company complete business plan, make inventory arrangement, minimize distribution logistics cost, as well as increase economic benefits.From a practical standpoint, the index smoothing forecasting method which comes from time series method is mainly introduced in this article. This article uses single, second and cubic exponential smoothing method and Holter-Winter’s exponential smoothing method to analyses and forecast the diesel oil distribution data of Kunming oil distribution center during2008to2013. Moreover, for convenience, these data was analyzed and solved by using solving method section of EXCLE to avoid the complex calculation and overmuch process, aiming to explain how to use exponential smoothing method to construct distribution demand model. The issue takes Kunming oil distribution center as instance, figures out the best exponential smooth method demand predicting model meanwhile calculates the distribution demand in2014in Kunming. This paper based on solving practical issue and analyzing this problem is very crucial that through analyzing and discussing the demand prediction issue and demand prediction method, more attention and thinking about predicting demand issue should be taken among enterprises.