Supply Chain Risk Evaluation Based On CVaR

The complexity of the supply chain will lead to the risk conducting enterprise from one node to another node the enterprise, and continued to spread and spread throughout the supply chain. For the supply chain, the risk conduction is not only a physical activity process, but also an economic activity, so the supply chain risk assessment is of great significance. However, because there are multiple enterprise in the supply chain, every node enterprises are facing all kinds of risky, to integrate all the risk sources into a quantitative analysis model is very difficult, even impossible. This is also a plight that majority of the supply chain risk assessment methodologies are facing.In this context, to explore how to introduce risk conditions are relatively mature theoretical value in the financial sector into the enterprise and supply chain risk assessment.The main research contents of this paper are as follows:First, based on review of existing risk assessment methods, by contrast, analyzes theSuitability and advantages of CVaR method used in supply chain risk assessment.Secondly, analyze the advantages and disadvantages of three evaluation methods of supply chain VaR model, namely the variance-covariance, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation principles, and the finally select the Monte Carlo simulation method for evaluating node enterprise and supply chain risk.Finally, build a supply chain risk assessment model based on CVaR, choosing15listed companies of the automotive industry as the research object, evaluating the node enterprise risk, and supply chain risk, and the corresponding optimized supply chain based on the results of the risk assessment measures.In this context, the paper discusses how to introduce the conditional value at risk which are more mature theories in the financial field into the enterprise and supply chain risk assessment, choosing the automotive industry as the research object. Research findings provide a new idea and method of supply chain risk assessment and risk aversion and also has a certain reference value of guiding the company’s supply chain practice.