Research On Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model Of Solar Photovoltaic Projects Based On Credibility Theory

Since the reform and opening up, China’s economic development has made remarkable achievements. In contrast, the environmental pollution is very serious due to the unhealthy development mode, high energy consumption and high pollution. With the features of energy conservation and environmental protection, the solar photovoltaic has been paid more and more attention and has been supported as the emerging industry strategically by our country. However, compared with Europe and the United States and other countries, the development of China’s photovoltaic industry is lagging behind on the whole. The solar photovoltaic projects face many uncertainties while developing, of which the management level is critical to be increased. Therefore, it is significant to conduct a comprehensive and scientific risk assessment on solar photovoltaic projects to discover the risk factors in time. Moreover, the appropriate management measures need to be formulated trying to reduce the risk level of solar photovoltaic projects.Firstly, this paper gives a brief overview about the research status and development trends of the project risk assessment theories at home and abroad. Then, according to the fundamental theory of project risk assessment, a three-dimensional model of Hall theory is introduced into the risk analysis of solar photovoltaic projects and the model of solar photovoltaic projects with a Hall three-dimensional structure is established. From the time dimension, the knowledge dimension and the logical dimension, the risk factors of photovoltaic projects are systematically analyzed and a risk assessment index system of it is established. Meanwhile, in order to get a more scientific and objective index weight, the principle of maximum entropy is used to integrate the mean variance method and the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. On this basis, the credibility theory is applied on the risk assessment of solar photovoltaic projects, the risk assessment model is established and the procedure of risk assessment model is demonstrated in detail. Finally, the solar photovoltaic project in Ningxia is used to validate the effectiveness of the model. The corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, which has important reference value for the risk assessment of solar photovoltaic projects in China.