Scenario Simulation Of Land Usefor Low Carbon Development

Impact of tropical deforestation on climate change is the focus of global change research. It isestimated that the world’s humid tropical forests annually to5.8×10hm2speeds have been cut, whilecausing2.3×106hm2/a degraded forests. Large areas of tropical forest have been cut into agriculturalland or other land, causing forest fragmentation, biodiversity loss, imbalance in the carbon cycle andregional climate change. Understanding land use/land cover patterns and causes of change and its impacton the ecological environment, is the key to understand its negative impact on biological resources andhuman development.Xishuangbanna region has the largest area of tropical forest in China. Carbon storage in forestvegetation in the region reaches64.10Tg, while the average carbon density was51.13t/hm2.1965statewide tropical natural forest coverage rate of46.46%, due to the deforestation, indiscriminate cutindiscriminate logging, particularly to create a large area of rubber forest, tropical natural forest coveragestatewide downward trend to1995decreased to27.80%. These land cover change is bound to affect thecarbon balance in the region. Research by adjusting the land use patterns to achieve carbon reductiontargets is valuable for China’s development of low-carbon economy and the path of sustainabledevelopment.This paper builds a carbon emission calculate model based on the IPCC2006and carbonemissions research, a land use simulation mode based on CA model, logistic model and Markov model,then combine this two into a complicate model named low-carbon development-oriented land use scenariosimulation. With this model, this paper analysis the impact of carbon emission caused by land usechanging, compares impacts in different land use changing, and finally simulate in scenarios of economicdevelopment, ecological development and integrated development to analysis the carbon emission changebased on the data in Xishuangbanna1999-2007. The main results are as follows:Low-carbon development-oriented land use scenario simulation framework was constructed bycarbon emission calculator sub-model and land use simulation sub-model. Carbon emission calculatorcontains one model calculating carbon emission by type-hold forest, type-change forest and soil classesbased on multi-temporal land use data, and another model to calculate carbon emission by people based on the statistics data. Land use simulation mode combines Markov, Logistic and CA model to build acomplicate model, using logistic model to recognize factors affecting land use change, to alter thetranslation rules of CA. Case study proved that this kind of research framework has theoretical andpractical significance.2. land use emissions were accounted for1999-2007in Xishuangbanna. Of the study period5500526t carbon were absorbed, in which type-hold forest contribute7740429t absorbed, type-changeforest get377410.1t emission, soil carbon emission reach2000310t, energy consumption carbon emissionsget3862803.604t. forest land have a maximum carbon emission in quantum, while construction land havea maximum carbon emission intensity..3. land use were simulated in3scenarios in Xishuangbanna, the results show: the area ofnatural forest in Xishuangbanna showed a downward trend in all scenarios, declining the fastesteconomic growth scenario, the average annual reduction62566ha, ecological security scenario areasmallest decline CDA scenario is between two scenarios; economic development scenarios under forestfastest growing, with an average annual increase of63091ha, ecological security slowest growth scenario,integrated development scenarios in between; arable land, grassland, construction land change obvious.4. Xishuangbanna region for carbon reduction potential of land-use study, three scenarios ofecological security scenarios can effectively reduce carbon emissions, a variety of land types of carbonemission intensity has declined, indicating that under the strict control of the land policy can reduce carbonemissions, but the need to sacrifice a lot of arable land, construction land and forest. Under thecomprehensive development scenario, carbon emissions more than the ecological security scenario, butmore rational land use structure, can effectively take into account regional economic development andcarbon reduction targets.