The Study On The Driving Factors Of Carbon Emission And The Path Of Emission Reduction In China

Global climate warming mainly caused by carbon dioxide emissions is one of the essential issues facing the world today and has attracted strong and extensive attention.Carbon dioxide reduction eventually becomes an important and necessary move to safeguard human life and address the threat of climate change.China is in a stage of rapid social development,and the total carbon dioxide emissions are relatively large,reducing carbon dioxide emissions is not only a domestic strategic for sustainable development,but also an important role to perform a responsible power in the international community.Therefore,President Xi Jinping has stated that China will reinforce the national autonomous contribution with policies and measures,aimed at reaching carbon emissions peak by 2030 and maintaining carbon neutralization by2060 at the United Nations General Assembly on September 22,2020.Reduction of carbon dioxide emission relates to the total reduction and carbon efficiency affected by factors including economic,energy,population and so forth.Driving factors study is crucial at the first place.China as the largest developing country should take a dual responsibility for sustainable development.The solution study is the core study for the goal of carbon neutralization.In the thesis,driving factors study on total carbon emissions in China was analyzed with RSBM-ML model which is based on the conventional DEA model and Malmquist production index method with the modification of polar coordinate theory.And the RSBM-ML model was set to calculate the reduction efficiency of carbon emission at the macroscopic level,as well as analyze its driving factors with the adoption of the spatial econometric model.To follow up,the reduction efficiency of carbon emission and the effect of driving factors for Chinese industrial enterprises was studied with the pollution database with the quantitated model.Then,contribution of each driving factor to the carbon emission reduction was measured using a general computation equilibrium model.In the end,the optimal pathway for carbon reduction was proposed from a dynamics system model with the goal of carbon emissions peak by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060.In general,total carbon emission and the reduction efficiency are discussed and the modeled solution is proposed with the database in China.The main contents are as follows:(1)The driving factors of total carbon emission change were discussed.First,while China’s total carbon emissions are rising,energy intensity,the proportion of coal in energy consumption,and the proportion of energy-intensive industries are declining,so China will face enormous pressure to reduce carbon emissions in the future.Secondly,the contribution of investment and consumption to total carbon emissions is increasing year by year.With the expansion of urbanization and consumption,especially the consumption scale of urban residents,the contribution to total carbon emissions cannot be ignored.It is of great importance to advocate energy-saving building and green lifestyle.Finally,energy intensity,energy structure,industrial structure and technological progress dominate the development trend of China’s carbon emission reduction,and are the key factors to push China to achieve the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in the future.(2)The factors of carbon emission efficiency are studied at the macro level.First of all,the carbon emission efficiency of eastern regions such as Beijing,Tianjin,Guangdong,Fujian,Shanghai and other provinces and regions with better ecological environment such as Hainan,Yunnan and other provinces is relatively high,which further verifies the conclusion that industrial structure,energy consumption structure and technological progress are the key factors of carbon emission reduction in China as mentioned in Chapter 2.Secondly,China’s carbon emission efficiency shows a certain spatial agglomeration feature during the sample period,which indicates that certain regions have certain common characteristics in terms of influencing factors of carbon emission,which provides a basis for formulating differentiated regional carbon emission reduction policies.Finally,except for the economic growth,industrial structure,resource endowment and other factors,government environmental regulation will also have an impact on carbon emission efficiency.From this perspective,the synergistic effect of conventional air pollution control,green development and carbon emission reduction should be brought into play.(3)The influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency are investigated at the enterprise level.First of all,from the perspective of enterprise characteristics,large enterprises tend to have strong research and development strength and sufficient funds to update equipment,and the higher the carbon emission efficiency of enterprises.Non-state-owned enterprises have a stronger willingness to reduce energy consumption costs.Young enterprises have stronger learning ability,stronger introduction of foreign advanced technology and management experience,and higher carbon emission efficiency.From the regional perspective,the advantages of industrial enterprises in the eastern region are greater than those in the central and western regions in terms of technological progress and equipment renewal.From the characteristics of agglomeration,industrial agglomeration can improve the technology spillover effect between enterprises,can exchange energy conservation and emission reduction experience,industrial agglomeration can improve the carbon emission efficiency of enterprises.(4)The contribution of influencing factor to total carbon emission control is simulated.First of all,from the perspective of the intermediate industry sector,the energy intensity and coal energy consumption of high-energy and high-pollution industries make a great contribution to carbon emission reduction,which is also the focus of China’s policy on energy conservation and emission reduction as well as industrial structure optimization and upgrading.Secondly,from the perspective of the energy sector,the carbon emission reduction policy will further reduce the proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure and increase the substitution of new energy to traditional energy through the market-oriented mechanism.Finally,from the point of body,carbon emission reduction policies on residents,businesses and governments have certain effect,lower household income and consumption levels,reduce enterprise labor and capital investment,government spending cuts,at the same time,the marketization of carbon emission reduction policies to increase government revenues and based on this,can set up a reasonable tax rebates mechanism,to ensure that enterprises,especially high-tech enterprises and emerging manufacturing business is not affected,make the residents income and consumption from the shock.(5)With the scenario settings and simulation,the optimal path for carbon emissions peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 is proposed.Firstly,from the perspective of the peak of carbon emissions in 2030,the low growth scenario(LD1,LD2,LD3)can all reach the peak of carbon emissions before2030,while some base scenarios(MD2,MD3)can reach the peak before 2030,while the enhanced scenario cannot reach the peak before 2030.Second,for achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,only LD3 in the low-growth scenario and MD3 in the base scenario can be achieved.Finally,from the point of the optimal path to reduce emissions,on the one hand,our country is the world’s largest developing country and carbon emissions country,economic development,improve people’s livelihood and the double pressure of energy conservation and emissions reduction,therefore,choose the MD3 path can not only guarantee the speed of economic growth but also guarantee the carbon reduction target implementation on schedule,this path as China’s carbon emissions to peak in 2030 and 2060 carbon neutral goal of optimal path.Under this path,on the other hand,in the optimization of industrial structure adjustment,increase the proportion of new energy sources,and investment in science and technology need hard effort,therefore,under the guarantee high quality and economic development goals,to develop new energy sources such as hydrogen and solar energy,raise the proportion of new energy consumption through market mechanism,to further reduce energy intensive and highly polluting industries,encourage enterprises to research and development innovation,the industrial structure more reasonable,to further increase investment in science and technology,through tax cuts,establish the national center for science and technology improve the level of science and technology.The highlights of the thesis include:(1)A continuous non-competitive input-output table for my country from 2009 to2018 was constructed,and used the SDA model to study the driving factors of my country’s total carbon emissions,from the aspects of total effect,sub-industry,energy sector,final demand and intermediate input,etc.According to the analysis,the total effect is divided into nine effects: energy intensity effect,energy structure effect,rural residents’ consumption effect,urban residents’ consumption effect,government consumption effect,investment effect,export effect,import effect,and technological progress effect.(2)The modification of SBM model and the global Malmquist production index method with polar coordinate theory for macro-calculation of the reduction efficiency of carbon emission was used to measure the carbon emission efficiency of 30 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous regions in my country.The spatial measurement model was used to study the driving factor study at macro-scope and the merge of industrial enterprise database and pollution database in China to study the driving factor study at the micro-scope.(3)To merge the 149 industrial sectors into 18 sectors among based on the nation’s input-output summary data in 2017 and constructed the carbon emission CGE model and the macro-and micro-SAM tables.CGE model code was compiled using GAMS software to simulate the driving factor contribution from energy consumption,energy structure,household consumption,investment,import and export,and macroeconomic variables to carbon emission reduction.(4)The dynamics system model,the consequent flow chart and the stock flow diagram of carbon emission were built up.The prediction of national carbon emissions from 2021 to 2060 and the scenario analysis on carbon emission peak in 2030 and the carbon neutralization in 2060 were made.The optimal path for coordinating economic and social development and carbon emission reduction goals was proposed.