Empirical Analysis And Countermeasure Research On Carbon Emission Reduction’s Factor Of Jiangxi

Carbon emission reduction is an inevitable choice of human society for dealing with the double challenge for the shortage of fossil energy and the climate change. During the Copenhagen conference, the Chinese government set a greenhouse gas emission reduction goal of2020. In December1,2011, the State Council issued the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of national and regional target for carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. Jiangxi, as an underdeveloped region, is in the stage of industrialization and urbanization. The demand of energy consuming of it is expanding and the pressure of carbon dioxide emission is growing simultaneously. In this background, researching on the factors and counter measure of carbon emission reduction is an important issue.Based on the accounting of Jiangxi province from1995to2010carbon emission and carbon emission intensity, the author use Tapio decoupling index to measure the relationship of economy growth and carbon emission. Then, the author use Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method(LMDI) to analyze the factor of carbon emission intensity. At last, the author econometric method to test the carbon emission intensity factor and forecast the carbon emission intensity of the end of Twelfth Five-Year Plan.The empirical study shows:(1) From1995to2010,the growth of the total carbon dioxide emissions of jiangxi’s energy consumption from15.21million tons in1995to39.49million tons in2010, with an average annual increase of6.57%. Carbon emissions intensity from1995in1.30tons per ten thousand yuan reduce to0.67tons per ten thousand yuan, with an average annual fell by4.34%.(2) In’Ninth five-year plan’period, jiangxi’s economic growth and carbon emissions is in an absolute decoupling state, while in’tenth five-year plan’period is a coupling state,’11th five-year plan’period is a relative hook state.(3) In the study period《energy intensity is the main factors to drive jiangxi’s carbon emissions intensity converged, the changes of industrialization process as the leading industry structure are the main factors to block carbon emissions intensity convergence, while life department’s energy intensity and energy structure’s changes to the jiangxi’s carbon emissions intensity down contribution is lesser, belong to the secondary factors to influence carbon emissions intensity.(4)Energy consumption carbon intensity, industrial energy intensity, non-agricultural and industry sector accounted for the proportion of GDP and carbon emissions intensity in the study period exist significant positive correlation. Scenario analysis shows, to realize national ’12th five-year plan’ period established during the carbon emission reduction task in Jiangxi is possible.(5) Puts forward to the work policy of catching industrial energy intensity down as the core of carbon emission reduction.