Analysis On Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers’ Risk Preference Influencing On Modern Agricultural Technology Diffusion

As a key group about spreading modern agricultural technology, Large-scaleRice-plant Farmers have more representative and demonstration effect on choosing andusing technology compared with the ordinary farmers. It will largely affect China’sagricultural science and technology innovation process that whether they use modernagricultural technology.Meanwhile, farmers’ risk preference is a major determinant of newtechnology diffusion rate.Therefore, this article constructs theoretical framework of studying Large-scaleRice-plant Farmers’ risk preference based on Markowitz Mean-Variance Model andExpected Utility Theory. Drawing on the experience of Rogers’ Innovation DiffusionTheory, it found that Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers’ risk preference is divided into threetypes, namely the risk preference, the risk indifference and the risk aversion. On the basedof survey data, it describes the characteristics of different types of Large-scale Rice-plantFarmers’ risk preference. Meanwhile using Ordered Logistic Model, conclusions can bedraw from the study analyzing some major factors’ that influencing farmers’ riskpreference. Its goal is to find out the same and different characteristics of the three types offarmers’ risk preference. Finally, it constructs theoretical model of Large-scale Rice-plantFarmers’ modern agricultural technology diffusion drawing on the experience ofInnovation Diffusion Theory and Rational Behavior Theory. An empirical analysis of theapplication of Binary Logistic Regression is to identify Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers’risk preference influence on modern agricultural technology diffusion and find out thesame and different characteristics affecting different types of farmers’ risk preferencemodern agricultural technology diffusion.Above the empirical analysis, this paper indicated the following conclusions:(1)Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers’ production and business operation decision, especially theagricultural technology application decision, is mainly affected by their risk preference.(2)The older, the lower the level of education, the worse physical condition, the highersideline activity, the less satisfied with credit services and technical guidance and in themiddle and higher income levels, along with in the plains and lake region, Large-scaleRice-plant Farmers the more inclined to the risk aversion; The younger, the higher the levelof education, the better physical condition, the lower sideline activity, the more satisfiedwith credit services and technical guidance and in the low and middle income levels, alongwith in the hills and mountain area, Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers the more inclined tothe risk preference; in the hills and mountain area, in the plains and lake region,Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers the more inclined to the risk indifference.(3)Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers’ risk preference has a positive influence on modern agriculturaltechnology diffusion, namely Large-scale Rice-plant Farmers the more inclines to the riskpreference, the more willing to technology diffusion.Three types of risk preference ofLarge-scale Rice-plant Farmers’ neighborhood relationship, level of education, physicalcondition, subjective input size and the local agricultural infrastructure conditions have nosignificant influence on modern agricultural technology diffusion behavior; age, whether toattend training willingness and in plain or lake have a positive influence on modernagricultural technology diffusion behavior; only the risk neutral of Large-scale Rice-plantFarmers,spread information focus, as well as on rice growing large subsidies policy andtechnical guidance service satisfaction have a positive influence on modern agriculturaltechnology diffusion behavior.