Study On Modeling And Simulating Of Land Use Based On Ann-ca Model Under The Constraints Of Markov In Minhou County

In recent years, land use (cover) change (LUCC) has become the core areas of global environmental change research, questions about the field of environmental research in recent years has become the forefront of global change issues. Scholars have increasingly focused on spatial pattern of land use change, based on research of the structure and the amount of land use change, under the support of interpreting and analyzing remote sensing image information, according to data on the area of land case of the use of dynamic change research in order to better understand the process of land use change and mechanism, and as a basis put forward relevant policies and measures to strengthen macro-management of land use, and realize sustainable use of land resources. From the research and development trends in terms of land use change, researches using mathematical methods and combining a variety of methods to explain land-use change, which fancied the researchers more, and these methods improved predication accuracy of the transformation of land use and effectively stimulated the temporal and spatial change of land use.This paper chose Minhou County of Fujian province as the study sample, and analyzed the number, spatial pattern change and constraints and driving factors of land use in this area, then built Markov-ANN-CA model to simulate and predict the land use change of the study area, mainly included the following contents:(1)Extracted three periods of Minhou County remote sensing image information in2000,2005and2010with the support of ENVI and ArcGIS software, got three periods of land use remote sensing interpretation maps. Based on the land use data of Minhou County in2000-2010, and analyzed the structure, number and transition change of land use in this area;(2) From the slope, rivers, roads, administrative centers and policies to explore the limiting factors and drive mechanism of land use;(3) On the basis, built Markov-ANN-CA model to simulate the land use change of the study area, and predict the2015and2020land use change by the model. Through the study of the above three aspects, the main conclusions of this paper were as follows:(1) The land use change of Minhou County had a strong spatial and temporal variation. During2000-2010, land use change have been very intense, the impact of human activities intensified the change of land use. The trend of urbanization in land use clearly shown, the cultivated land and woodland had a lot loss, the construction land had a rapid growth trend at the same time. (2) The cultivated land, garden land, construction land and unused land was concentrated in0-15°,while the woodland was concentrated in the area grater than25°; Construction land and garden land were strongly appealed to the factor of rivers, and the factor of administrative centers also appealed the construction land; With away from the administrative center, the decrease of cultivated land was faster, and while the growth of garden land was faster;(3) Setting six combinations of parameters in Markov-ANN-CA model to simulate the land use of the study area, compared the predicted map with the actual land use map of2010, the results showed that:setting appropriate threshold and the random variable parameters could improve the simulation accuracy of model; The Lee-Sallee indices was highest when random variables a was0.8and the threshold was0.8in the model; The all kappa indices were higher than0.9, which showed that the simulation of the land use was highly consistent with the actual land use of the study area.(4) Analysed the2015and2020land use prediction of the study area, the results indicated that:the land use of Minhou County significantly changed, the cultivated land, woodland, unused land and water were keeping reducing, while the construction land and garden land continued growing; The construction land mainly distributed in plain along with the Min river and Dazhang river, the cultivated land mainly distributed in the intermountain basin and on both sides of the Min river, the wood land mainly distributed in the north, southwest mountain area and central area of Minhou County.