Simulation Of Land Use Change In Korla Based On CLUE-S Model

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has become a hot issue of global environmental change research. Along with the economic and social development and the continuous technology progress, the research directions and contents in LUCC are deepen and expanded constantly. Korla is located in central Xinjiang and is the key city in the fist list of the development of the western region of Xinjiang. Located in northwest arid area, Korla’s ecological environment is relatively fragile. At the same time, Korla is at the accelerating stage of the economy development and faces some problems such as the constraints of the resource and environment factors. So, choosing the rural and urban combination area witch has the dramatic changes in land use structure as the research object in land use change research, the research results not only is in favor to rich the land use change research in the arid areas, but also have the positive guidance for Korla and similar districts’sustainable development.The paper introduces the natural conditions and economic development in Korla and interprets four remote sensing images of the study area in1990,1998,2005and2010with RS and GIS techniques. Meanwhile, combined with the land resources characteristics of the study area, the land use types are divided into farmland, construction land, garden land, unused land and water area. On this basis, the paper analyses deeply the land use change process of the study area from1990to2010, sums up the driving forces of the land-use change mechanism, and simulates the future land use spatial pattern of the study area with the CLUE-S model, obtaining the following main conclusions:(1) The economy of the study area developed speedily and the land use structure changed dramatically in recent20years. The land use level was improved increasingly and the land use composite index increased from161.74to216.08. The area of unused land decreased a lot. Overall, farmland, garden land and construction land were an increasing trend, mainly because Korla’s reserved land resources is rich, construction land mainly occupied by unused land and in recent years, the continual increase in investment of land remediation works in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region led farmland increased.(2) The mutual relationship between the driving mechanisms of the land use change is combed. Among them, natural factor is the base condition to determine the land use structure and layout and it directly determines the objective possibility of the economic and social development and the land use patterns. Policy factor on the influence of the land use change is effective and plays the leading role of the significant stimulation. For example, the policies to create pear village, construct shelter forest, build the water conservancy projects and so on in Korla lead to the constantly land use structure change of the study area. The economic and social development for the land use structure change reflects to pursue economic efficiency and the gap of the output efficiency between each land use type promotes the adjustment of the land use structure and land intensive level.(3) According to the logistic regression model, selected100*100m,200*200m,300*300m,400*400m four analog scales, the analog goodness are compared in the different analog scales of the study area. The results show that there are some differences of the beta coefficients (the relationship between the type and the driving factors of land use) in the different scales, proofing that the driving factors affecting land use spatial pattern have significant scale effects. Compared the analog goodness of four analog scales, it is found that when the analog scale is200*200m, the analog goodness of farmland, construction land and unused land pattern simulation model are all highest. Therefore,200*200m is the best scale to build the land use pattern simulation.(4) Introduced CLUE-S model, aimed at the non-space module and used Markov model to predict the land demand of study area, the land use change in2020is simulated. The simulation results provide the reference for the rational development of regional land resource and the land use planning of the study area.