Smart Grid Operational Risk Transmission Model Study Under Interactive Electricity Using Mode

This paper considers the interactive electricity using mode based on electricity flow, information flow and capital flow between grid companies and electric power generation companies and electric power user under the environment of smart grid as research subject, and studies the new risk elements for smart grid operation brought by interactive electricity using mode and the transmission path and transmission effects of these risk elements along electricity flow, information flow and capital flow by means of risk elements transmission theory. First, on the basis of the analysis of business process of smart grid information system, the paper considers the information transmitting during the execution of business as a risk element, considers the direction of the business process execution as a risk element transmission path, and proposes smart grid information security risk transmission assessment model based on absorbing markov chain. This model quantifies smart grid information security risk aiming at different levels of safety fault condition of smart grid information system, and provides a more sound and practicable method of calculation for smart grid information security risk assessment under interactive electricity using mode. The risk assessment model quantitatively calculates risk indicators of all tasks and their probability distribution in each state security failure by means of absorbing markov chain, the high-risk tasks of the smart grid information system business execution process can be determined by evaluating. Second, this paper analyzes electricity power users demand response under TOU pricing of smart grid interactive electricity using mode, and the electricity sales revenue risk element and electricity purchase cost risk element of power grid corporation causes by it. And then the conclusion that the uncertinty of TOU pricing, electricity purchasing proportion on contract market, user demand for electricity and the electricity price on the spot market co-led the uncertainty of the power grid company’s earnings through the transmission path of relational risk was deduced by using price elasticity of demand, in which TOU pricing affected user demand for electricity through price elasticity of demand and thereby affected the spot market electricity price. Finally, the paper made a number of recommendations for the establishment of a high-efficiency, secure and economical operating mechanism for smart grid interactive electricity using from the perspective of improving the operating safety, capital security and informtion security of smart grid.