Analysis Of Default Risk And The Influence Factors Of Agricultural Peasants’ Loan

Since2004, the central file1has already focused on agriculture, rural areas and peasants for ten years. It’s not only because of the help from our country but also the help from finance. As peasants, it’s hard for them to get mortgage from bank for their own reasons, letting alone the enlarging the production. To solve this, Local governments have given the burden of supporting the peasant household loans to the local agricultural bank. In order to implement the policies for supporting agriculture of the central and local and take the social responsibility of the obligations as Banks, local agricultural Banks have reduced the threshold of the peasant household loans, financial innovation constantly. At the same time, they make the peasants get loans under the condition of lacking pledges to support the production. It’s always risky to have a change. Bank of peasants’agricultural loan defaults have raised gradually as the change. Therefore, it’s meaningful for us to investigate and analyzes the reduction or avoiding Banks Bank of peasants’ agricultural loan defaults. Because of this, it can help to promote peasants loans, help peasants get further financial support, to promote further increase peasants agricultural bank lending.This research is based on the data of some agricultural bank of peasants’ agricultural loans. The author investigates the data and combines the opinions of modern economy such as finance, organizational behavior, and econometrics and so on. The conclusion is made through the empirical analysis, and analysis of data. It is concluded that the influence factors of agricultural peasants’loan defaults are lender gender, age, education, family number, loan guarantee way, interest rates to raise ratio, etc. It’s obvious to see the influence of these factors. However, searching for the cause of these influence factors can explain the reason why decryption peasants’agricultural loan default rate is higher than other non-agricultural loan defaults.Through the deeper study of the factors, this thesis shows the three reasons of external environment influence, bank, the customer themselves. According to these, some suggestions will be put forward.The innovation of this article is mainly analysis based on the actual data of peasants’agricultural loan happen rather than pure theory research; the model has more objective and authenticity. Peasants agricultural loan default rule, via the data analysis of these rules into for peasants agricultural loan risk, to promote further increase peasants agricultural bank lending, increase peasants agricultural loans management level, optimize the peasants agricultural loan structure adjustment, etc have important reference value for forecasting.