Analysis On The Competitiveness And Influencing Factor Of China’s Service Trade

一. BackgroundUnder the technological innovation and economic globalization, the rapid development of global trade in services accelerates the upgrade of export structure and increases the scale and number of commercial presence. The status of services is rising, mainly for added value and increasing employment in services. At present, in the perspective of the service added value from the share of GDP, the developed countries is between60%to70%and medium income countries is between50%to60%;From the ratio of employment in service, the developed countries has reached about70%,and medium income countries is between50%to60%; From the view of transverse,these two indicators in developing countries are lower, but there are certain vertical ratio increased. China, as a developing country, is still in the stage of industrialization.It is late to develop services and to participate in the global trade in services. The services is not only behind the developed countries, and even many low-income countries. China’s service industry is growing slowly and exists continuous deficit.It affects not only China’s industrial optimization and upgrading, but also the service trade competitiveness of the external trade.二. Article Ideas1. Reading the relevant literature on service trade.Through reading a lot of domestic and foreign references about services research, I summarizes the relevant research methods and level.Then,I tries to find their deficiencies and correction them.2. Reviewing of the classical trade theory.Exploring sources and the determinants of service trade competitiveness:in the study of international trade issues, the classical theory of comparative advantage is influential. So, it is or not applicable to explain and reaserch problems of services trade? Later, competitive advantage theory is proposed and increasingly being used for competitive analysis. The paper uses the two theory to analyze china’s competitiveness on services trade.3.Using indicators to analyze services trade.In this paper, first, there is simple qualitative analysis about the current situation of China’s service trade.We can obtain a exhaustive understanding about it.Second,using indicators(international market share, RCA index, CA index and TC index) to measure china’s competitiveness on services trade.The analysis qualitativly and quantitativly makes us evaluate service more comprehensivly.And finding comparative disadvantage and comparative advantage in order to identify the current development of China’s service trade and propose how to exploit comparative advantage to enhance china’s competitiveness on services trade. Finally, using the same indicators to compare services trade competitive level of America, the China, India and South Korea.4.Empirical Analysis.On the basis of Porter’s "diamond model" and other scholars’relevant research, I select the relevant variables and make use of Least Squares to see their relationship. In order to get a better regression results, the paper makes use of time series data between1982-2012.三. Results.The paper compares service trade competitiveness among China United States, India and South Korea.We can find:China’s services is mainly dependent on traditional industries. Why the United States has a stronger competitive advantage? Because the capital and technology-intensive industries(such as computers, communications, and financial and insurance services) is mainly service sector. In the last few years India is also develop emerging services. The analyzed data also show that India’s competitive advantages in services is slowly showed. As a same developing country with a large population, China’s service trade has certain comparative advantages mostly concentrated in labor-intensive sectors. Technology, capital-intensive industries have relatively serious comparative disadvantage.3. Regression result.In the paper,empirical result reveal that goods trade exports and foreign direct investment(FDI) have a significant positive impact on services exports in China. The per capita GDP has a notable negative impact on China’s service trade exports.the growth of goods trade directly conduces to the growth of services trade. When goods trade developes quickly and production is divided refinedly, it is necesary to improve the service network platform generating more demand for services. Thus it is beneficial to promote the development of China’s service trade. FDI has a positive influence on China’s services exports, however, it has smaller contribution than goods trade.lt reflects that FDI has not fully played a role on China’s service trade.四、InnovativeExcept for longitudinal analysis,I compare China’s overall services trade with the United States, South Korea and India on the basis of the international market share, TC index, CA index and RCA index. In the paper, in the light of Porter’s "diamond model" and other scholars’relevant research, I select the relevant variables and make use of Least Squares to see their relationship. So as to get a better regression model, several variables is selected to exclude serious collinearity by Eviews6.0software.