Mathematical Analysis On Getting Loans For Western Region Farmers

Farmers getting loans has become the main factor which has restricted the developmentof rural economy in western region of China. In western China, farmers can mainly choose toget credit loans and guaranteed loans or mortgage loans. Affected by the characteristics ofrural finance, the supply of rural credit loans is seriously inadequate, and credit demand isdifficult to get farmers to meet. In addition, as farmers are lack of effective collaterals, sothey can hardly get collateral loans. Mortgage loan of agricultural property rights is aninnovative financing mode, however, the development of the model has not been perfect.To alleviate the difficult problem of loans to farmers, this paper has researched from twodifferent levels: supply of credit loans and financing needs of rural mortgage property. We getsome certain results and highly targeted policy recommendations.First, with game theory, we explore the shortage of the existing major supply mode inrural credit market of western China. On this basis, we propose a new cooperative supplymodel of large commercial banks and new rural financial institutions. We build asymmetrichawk-dove game model to analyze the evolution of cooperation supply and accordinglypropose policy recommendations. The results showed that rely on government subsidies, suchas the central bank‘s refinancing issuance can’t ensure the sustainability of rural credit supply,and there exists a serious moral hazard. Asymmetric hawk-dove game model results showthat the more asymmetric in the capital and farmers information, the greater the possibility ofchoosing to cooperate supply. And there exists a stable mixed strategy Nash equilibrium ofthe cooperation within the system, this theoretically ensures the sustainability supply for ruralfinance market.Secondly, from the level of demand for rural property mortgage, we utilize a Bayesiannetwork method to construct the model of some relevant influencing factors. The data havebeen collected from the rural households in three experimental reform districts during June toJuly,2012. The Bayesian network model visually embodies the relationships of these factors,and furthermore gives the probability measures among these factors. The results indicate thatthe comprehension to the rural property mortgage policy, the level of income, the previouscredit loaning experience and the total land area of each household directly affect the demand of farmer credit loaning. Moreover, the age and gender of the head of household, and thelevel of spending indirectly affect the demand of household credit loaning. In addition, thereare significant differences within the different levels of these three factors. There are notsignificant effective of the education degree to the head of household and condition of trafficto the demand of credit loaning.Finally, according to the above conclusions, we think that: on the one hand, we shouldactively guide the cooperative supply reasonably of large commercial banks and new ruralfinancial institutions in Western China, guide them scientifically select "wholesale lending","entrusted loans" and other ways to diversify cooperation, continuously expanding supplychannels of China’s rural credit fund. On the other hand, based on the study, the relevantfinancial institutions can seriously investigate the basic characteristics of the local farmers,establish and continuously improve the information database of farmers, so that the limitedresources can reasonably be configured, and the problems of loans to farmers can beeffectively mitigated.