Risk Assessment Of International Petroleum Contracts Based On The Fuzzy Neural Network

Comprehensive analysis and risk evaluation of international oil contracts has a veryimportant practical significance for China’s oil companies, which are engaged in theexploration and development of overseas oil resources effectively, to avoid all kinds of risks.First of all, this paper analyzes the international oil contract risk assessment situation andexisting problems, points out the necessity of risk assessment of international oil contracts. Inthe specific work practice, risks of the international oil contracts have a variety of types, andthe extent of the risk and the importance of each is not the same. By decomposing of theterms and conditions of the international oil contracts, this article identifies the risk ofinternational oil contracts, determines the impact of each risk factors through each risk levelanalysis and structural decompose. By cluster analysis, the paper ultimately determines themain influencing factors, thus establishing the index system of risk assessment in theinternational oil contracts.Comprehensive evaluation of the risk of international oil contracts is a very complexsystem evaluation. It is also an important part of the management of international oil project.This article combines the fuzzy evaluation method and artificial neural network, suggestsbuilding a fuzzy neural network model for quantitative evaluation of the internationalpetroleum contract risk. There are no scholars attempting to do so at home and abroad. Themethod is advanced and innovative. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation quantitative fuzzy riskfactors and neural network weakens human factors to determine the weights of each factor. Inthis way, we improve the reliability and accuracy of the evaluation results, and at the sametime avoid a lot of tedious calculation, and the evaluation becomes simple and easy to line.Choosing the data of the international oil contracts in Central Asia as an example, this articledetects the fuzzy neural network. The results show that the prediction error of the model isvery small, effective risk assessment model of international oil contracts. It is a reliable andeffective risk assessment model of international oil contracts. Finally, this paper presentssome measures for Chinese oil companies to circumvent international petroleum contract risk,and provides some suggests for signing overseas exploration and development contracts.