The Synthetic Methods Of Overseas Oil&Gas Investment Environment Risk Index And Application

As the most important kind of energy, oil and gas is of great significance to thedevelopment of national economy. Along with the rapid development of Chinese economy,the consumption of oil and gas is also increasing rapidly. However, oil and gas resourcesbegin to shrink in China, production growth space in continent is limited, exploitationability in ocean is poor, oil and gas demand is highly dependent on imports, the externaldependency increases gradually, the gravity of energy security is daily on the increase.Meanwhile, huge risks and challenges are faced when Chinese enterprises investingoverseas oil and gas. The main manifestations is: the increasing efforts by resourcecountries to control oil and gas resources, the increasing competition of oil and gasresources, the increasing difficulty and complexity of overseas oil and gas investmentcooperation, and the increasing investment environment risk. Therefore, the quantitativeresearch on the risk of the oversea oil and gas investment environment and the synthesis ofrisk index to measure the size of the investment risk is of great significance.This research adopts the risk tree analysis and brainstorming to establish overseas oiland gas investment risk index system, uses the threshold value method and monte carlosimulation to construct the overseas oil and gas investment environment risk assessmentmodel by bottom-up process, then based on the model, the five types of risk: policy,economy, security, policy&law, and society of29key oil&gas resource countries arecalculated, and then the advantages and disadvantages of all kinds of weight assignmentmethods are compared. The comprehensive integration method combination with "functiondrive" and the "variance drive" is applied to confirm the weight coefficient and tosynthesize the risk index. Based on risk index results, the realistic meaning of the riskweight coefficient is anlyzed, and take the highest risk index country, that is Afghanistan, asan example, to analyze all kinds of risks. Finally taking the famous oil&gas companies asan example for the empirical research, feasible policy suggestions are put forward from twoaspects: country and company.