| Since the beginning of this century, the air transportation industry in Chinafurther expand opening to the outside world, and the aviation industry traffic right isalso opened at a constant speed. International air freight giants such as UPS, FedEx,DHL, TNT, seize the Chinese shipping market with greater amplitude, establishbranch company, operating station, transit center to seize the China air freight in thenationwide market share.However, the incidence of the global financial crisis in2008has brought to not asmall impact on the air freight of every country. States import and export tradevolume has shrunk dramatically, thus significantly reducing the demand for air cargo,which especially has brought a greater negative impact on large-scale logisticsengaged in international express, international logistics. In this situation, manylogistics enterprises such as FedEx have to consider streamlining organizations, andeven to reconsider the ports in China, operating stations set up logistics nodes,reducing and even removing some of the nodes in order to save costs and improvetheir operating efficiency, in order to response to the crisis.This thesis takes FedEx as the research object to probe into these problems.Firstly, it utilizes SWOT method to analyze strengths, weaknesses, opportunities andthreats in Shenzhen port, puts forward the development plan of the port. Secondly, itmakes use of freight volume of historical data in2003-2011at this port, and appliesregression analysis model,gray prediction model and combination forecastingmodel to compare, selects combination forecasting model for final prediction model.Then, it applies this model to forecast the material flow of Shenzhen port in2012-2016years, the port logistics is showing a steady upward trend in the next five years, Finally, in the prediction based on Shenzhen port,the thesis puts forward someproposals, namely, expanding the scale of port, increasing the operating infrastructureproject investment, strengthening the technological innovation and serviceinnovation. |