Decomposition Of Carbon Emission Factor And The Path To Low-carbon Economy Of Beijing, Tianjin And Hebei

In order to analyze the influence factors of carbon emissions in the region of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei, and explore the path to develop low-carbon economy, this paper startswith the terminal energy consumption of three industries and resident consumption, andconstructs an identical equation, which is composed of the population size, level ofeconomic development, energy intensity, the proportion of energy consumption, energystructure and the coefficient of carbon emission. Based on the data of terminal energyconsumption during2000-2012, various factors are analyzed and their contribution ismeasured by LMDI (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index). The result shows that, the scale ofpopulation and economy make positive driving effect, energy intensity, energy structure andcarbon intensity make negative driving effect, the proportion of energy consumption makesnegative driving effect before2006, then changes into positive driving effect.Basing on the decomposition results of LMDI model, combining the qualitativeanalysis of low-carbon economy in the region of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, this paperconstructed a SD (System Dynamics) model for the low-carbon economy in the region ofBeijing, Tianjin and Hebei. It designed six kinds of low carbon economy development path,which include the path of natural development, the path of sustained and rapid economydevelopment, the path of energy-saving, the path of carbon taxes intervention, the path ofsustainable population growth and the path of synthesis complementary. According thesimulation of Vensim software, comparative analysis of the advantages and disadvantagesfor each path is made. Meanwhile, real GDP, population, consumption of non-renewableenergy and carbon emissions are selected to evaluate the six paths by AHP (AnalyticHierarchy Process). The result shows that synthesis complementary path is the optimal pathof low-carbon economy development in the region of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.Finally, basing on the model of LMDI and SD, some suggestion is made for thelow-carbon economy in the region of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. For example, to controlthe population size reasonably and improve the quality of economy development, toincrease investment in science and technology, to support the research of new energytechnology, to accelerate achieving regional economic integration, to optimize the industrialstructure, to timely introduce the reasonable scheme of carbon tax, to adjust the energystructure, to improve energy efficiency, reforestation, to make research on carbon sequestration technology, to popularize the low-carbon concept, to develop a sound legalprotection system, to use the abroad advanced experience of low-carbon economy forreference and so on.