Research On The Temporal And Spatial Changes And Factors Of Grain Production In Heilongjiang Province

From ancient times to the present,the issue of food has always been an inescapable topic.Coupled with local conflicts,natural disasters,virus transmission and other factors,the severity of the food crisis has been exacerbated.Food production plays a significant role in the national economy,stabilising and increasing food production can help ensure food security in China.In latest years,the "Central Document No.1" has focused on the issue of food security,putting "tightly grasping the stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products" in the first place and proposing a series of policy measures to improve grain production capacity.Being one of the 13 major grain-producing regions in China,Heilongjiang Province plays an instrumental role in the stabilization and maintenance of national food security.Since 2010,Heilongjiang has been the top producer of grain in China for thirteen consecutive years.The stability and increase of grain production in Heilongjiang has given full play to its role as a "ballast" for national food security,making a great contribution to solving the problem of food supply for the whole country and promoting the building of a strong agricultural country on the one hand,and driving It has also contributed to the development of Heilongjiangs agricultural economy and reduced the gap between urban and rural areas.Heilongjiang Province plays a pivotal role in the countrys food production,so it is worth studying the changes in the pattern of spatial and temporal food production in Heilongjiang Province and the influencing factors,and to propose countermeasures to promote food production in Heilongjiang Province for the development of food production in Heilongjiang Province and to ensure national food security.In accordance with the achievements of grain production at home and abroad,this research paper firstly describes the theoretical concepts concerning grain production and combines relevant disciplinary theoretical approaches to explore and analyses the total grain production,total sown area and cropping structure in Heilongjiang Province during 2001-2021,then explains the advantages and disadvantages of current grain production in Heilongjiang Province,reads the literature and relevant statistical yearbooks,etc.,performs statistics,composes,calculates and organizes the relevant data,After reading literature and relevant statistical yearbooks,we analyzed the spatial pattern of grain production in 13 prefectures of Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2021 by using GIS analysis and grain production center of gravity model,and finally the principal component regression analysis was used to analyse the influencing factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province from 2001 to 2021 The study explores the relationship between each influencing factor and grain production.Finally,according to the analysis results,scientific and reasonable policies and measures are proposed to guarantee and improve grain production in Heilongjiang Province in the light of the real situation of grain production.The major findings are as follows:(1)From a time perspective,from 2001 to 2021,there is a significant increase in the sown area of grain in Heilongjiang Province,from 7.957 million hm2 to 14.551 million hm2 in 2021,an increase of about 82.87%,with wheat dropping out of the dominant position of grain crops and the sown area as a whole showing a decreasing trend,decreasing in 2021 compared to 2001 by 315.79 million hm2,rice,corn and soybeans show an overall upward trend,and corn has the largest increase in sown area,Growing from 2.11 million hm2 in 2001 to 6.524 million hm2 in 2021,an increase of approximately 209.2%.,from 2001 to 2021,grain production in Heilongjiang Province shows an obvious upward trend,with 2001-2003 grain production has fluctuated,2003-2015 grain production increased rapidly,reaching 76,157,800 t in 2015,declined slightly in 2015-2019,and continued to rise in 2019-2021,with a record high grain production in 2021,growing to 78,677,000 t;there has also been a great change in the grain crop planting structure,with corn replacing soybean as the highest proportion of grain crops,with 44.84% of the overall area of food sown in 2021.In terms of grain sown area,the percentage of high-yielding crops such as rice and corn rose from 46.34%in 2001 to 71.41% in 2021,an increase of 25.07 percentage points,while the proportion of lowyielding crops such as wheat and soybeans are declining,from 40.93% in 2001 to 27.18% in 2021,a decrease of 13.75 percentage points.(2)From the spatial perspective,grain production in Heilongjiang province has certain spatial characteristics.Moran’s I value generally shows soybean > wheat > corn > rice,and all of them are greater than 0.9,showing high clustering.In the cold hotspot analysis,the production patterns of the four food crops varied significantly,with rice production hotspot areas concentrated in the southern and eastern municipal areas of Heilongjiang Province,maize production hotspot areas concentrated in the southern and western areas of Heilongjiang Province,and soybean and wheat production hotspot areas concentrated in the northwestern areas of Heilongjiang Province.In 2021,the clustering degree and range of rice > corn > soybean > wheat were ranked as rice > corn >soybean > wheat.(3)The factors influencing grain yield in Heilongjiang province were studied by principal component regression analysis,i.e.,the factors influencing grain yield in Heilongjiang province were optimized and reduced in dimensionality by principal component analysis,and after eliminating the multicollinearity in the regression model by principal component analysis,the principal component variables were regressed as independent variables and grain yield as dependent variables to obtain linear regression equations,and combined with the average annual growth rate and elasticity coefficients to calculate the contribution of each variable to grain yield.The finding of the study indicated that the total power of agricultural machinery and rural electricity consumption were the main influencing factors of grain production in Heilongjiang Province,and that the area affected and the number of people employed in the primary sector constrained the growth of grain production.