| Per capita grain possession is always an important form of grain security,the level of per capita grain possession,directly related to the national economic development,social stability and national independence of the overall situation of major strategic issues.The Party Central Committee and the State Council always attaches great importance to grain safety,and to put in a prominent position.Chinese grain gap continues to increase,in 2003,is China's grain production"ten"in a row the starting year,in this year China produced the 4.3×10~8 t grain,per capita consumption of grain is 334 kg China's grain barely enough to eat,grain imports and exports are essentially flat.In 2009,China produced 4.84 tons of grain,but this year China's consumption of 4.97 tons of grain.China's grain consumption is growing faster,which is because of eating well,the proportion of meat and milk in the diet increased.The grain consumption gap in 2009 up to 13 million tons.In 2009,China's grain imports increased rapidly to 48 million 940 thousand tons.In 2012,China net imports of 70 million tons of grain.At present,Chinese three staple grain(corn,rice and wheat)net imports have been normalized.On the basis of domestic and foreign research on grain per capita,this paper firstly expounds the basic concept of per capita grain possession,and uses the methods such as the shift of centroid,the evolution of spatial pattern,geographical weighted regression and so on.In 2004,2014 two time node national county grain per capita is analyzed,toexplore the current our country county per capita occupancy of grain production and per capita distribution.On the related data statistics,sorting,processing,and on the basis of the analysis,according to the analysis of the influence factors of the national county per capita occupancy of grain,combining with the actual situation of the national per capita occupancy of grain,scientific and feasible policies and measures are put forward to promote the increase of per capita.The main conclusions are as follows:1.From the perspective of the overall pattern of grain of National County,the county grain per capita showed overall upward,to 2014,the county per capita grain share has grown to 443kg,greatly alleviate the pressure of grain brings to the economic development and social stability.2.The magnitude of the occupancy volume of per capita grain shifting priorities,the per capita grain weight center of gravity in 10 years,the overall migration direction is transferred from the southwest to the northeast,and North and south direction of migration is greater than the magnitude of the east-west direction migration,show that the increment of grain production in the north than in the South,In 2004,per capita grain weight center of gravity in Henan Province,in 2014 and to the Northeast migration that continued focus on regional grain to the North.3.In 2004,the per capita share of grain in the country is relatively scattered,and the northeast region is the only hot area in the whole country,and the second hot spot is divided into 5 regions,located in the northeast of hot spots around,Hetao area,North China and southwest China,cold to maximum coverage,especially concentrated in the western region,cold region mainly distributed in the coastal areas and the Yunnan Guizhou Plateau Area.2014 hot spots are still in the northeast,but somewhat smaller than in 2004,second hot spots reduced to 2 large areas,the northern part of Xinjiang is the new second hot spots,second cold area than in 2004 expanded,covering the entire western region except Xinjiang,and gradually extended to the East,2014 cold region has also increased,showing a diffusion trend from the east to the West.4.In2014,the local coefficient of per capita grain share is estimated to affect the change of grain yield per capita,the important degree from large to small is as follows:Population>Third industry specific gravity>Urbanization rate>Second industry specific gravity>Per capita GDP. |
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