Research On Financial Early Warning Of The Chinese Listed Manufacturing Industry Companies

In recent years, more and more listed manufacturing industry companies fellinto the financial crisis, its reason was various. But the important reason is themanagerial and administrative expertise is low, financial risk managementconsciousness is light, does not have established corresponding finance earlywarning system. Under this background, build a finance early warning indicatorsystem and a strong predictive ability financial early warning model tomanufacturing industry, speaking of the company various benefits counterparts,has the very vital practical significance.This paper take the A-share listed companies in manufacturing industry as theresearch objects,174listed manufacturing industry companies were selected from2007to2011as the research samples, take the datas of T-2year and the T-3yearas the foundation, using the Significance test, Factor analysis, Logistic regression,Fisher discriminant statistical methods, combining the financial indexes andnon-financial indexes, built the financial early warning model of listedmanufacturing industry companies. Finally, proposed the safeguard measures tothe finance early warning implementation.⑴The financial early warning index system has been determined. The22financial indexes and20non-financial indexes have been screened through the significance examination (the K-S test, the T-test and the U-test), and the indexeswhich has significance difference between normal companies and the crisiscompanies had been retained.⑵The financial early warning models have been established. Using the Factoranalysis method to the financial indexes which have passed the significanceexamination, and take the main factors as the variables, using two classify Logisticregression method, established the pure financial norm early warning model; thentake the non-financial indexes which passed the significance examination with themain factors as the variables, established comprechensive early warning model ofintroducing the non-financial indexes; and then introduce the Fisher discriminantanalysis method to bulid the hybrid prediction model with non-financial indexes.⑶The validity of the models has been exanined.Using the modeling samplesand test samples to test the prediction of the early warning models, the resultsshow the introduction of non financial index is helpful to improve the discriminantability of the early warning models, and the hybrid financial early warning modelis better than single model, which has a higher prediction precision.⑷The relationship between variable and the probability of financial crisiswere analyed.The financial factors have significant effect on financial warning;non-financial indexes also have effect on the financial prediction. In order toreduce the risk of financial crisis occurs, the listed company not only needs to strengthen the financial control, but also should optimize the stockholder’s rightsstructure, perfect the corporate governance.⑸The safeguard measures to the finance early warning implementation wereproposed. That Includes: establishing the finance early warning organizationsystem, setting up the whole staff crisis consciousness, strengthen the informationresource management and perfect the internal control system. In addition, thegovernment should also reorganize the stock market order, provides the goodexternal environment for the financial early warning.