Research On Dynamic Evaluationof Land Ecological Security Under The Backgro Und Of New Normal Economic Developmeet

The Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the CCP proposed the concept of “five-in-one” for the first time aiming to enclose the ecological construction into the macro decision making level, which reflect the determine of the comprehensive reform for the resource exploit and environment protection. In 2014, after the inspection for Henan Province, Present Xi Jinping pointed out that China was still in the key time point for developing and we all need to keep on the track and to adapt to the new normal with the consideration of current domestic and global feature of economic development. Nowadays, it should take the strategic chance for development and adapt to the economic new normal positively and follow people’s expectation for better environment so as to enhance the ecological civilization construction with the promotion of the green-low carbon economic development.Land, as the fundamental resource and determinant for human society development, could provide all the materials for development. Given to this, as the nation economic foundation, the security issues related with land are closely connected to the regional sustainable development. However, in the evolution of human society, human’s irrational exploit on land resources has greatly threaten the land ecological environment and the security of human society itself. So, the evaluation for land ecological safety is of vital importance.This paper selects all the cities in Wuhan urban agglomeration(WUA) as empirical research area. In the context of economic new normal, based on the analysis of current regional land ecological security, the land ecological security in WUA from 2003-2012 has been evaluated with the incorporation of "pressure- state- response" theoretical model. The indicators system consists of 25 indicators which were selected from the perspectives of environment, economy and society. The genetic algorithms projection pursuit model has been introduced for the analysis of key factors affecting local land ecological security and its future development trend has been modelled. According to the analysis of land ecological security factors, the current land ecological security in WUA is affected by population pressure, industrial structure and resource unitization, which threaten the land ecological environment.The GM(1,1) model is introduced to predict the development trend of land ecological safety from 2013 to 2020.The results show that WMA as a whole has a good land ecological safety condition while this condition goes down in some cities inside WMA. The pressure of overpopulation, industrial structure and resource utilization are the main factors worsening the land ecologic safety condition in WMA. For the future prediction, the land ecological safety in all cities in WMA goes down at different pace which show that the ecological environment protection is still urgent.