Research On Shandong’s Export Growth Persistence

Since twenty-first Century, export trade in Shandong Province has gained a rapid growth. It’s mainly embodied in the aspects of export trade, export structure, trade mode, export market structure, and at the same time, Shandong province exports to the trade partner country are increasing. Look from whole, although the export trade of Shandong province has been in a rapid growth trend, but it also has problem in the process of growth. For example, Shandong’s development is not balanced, especially coastal city development is rapid, however, inland city lags behind. In addition, whether Shandong Province export trade growth is sustainable, it is the main problem to the study this paper.Based on the stochastic frontier model decompose Shandong Province export trade growth into the trade potential growth, trade efficiency growth and trade input growth. In the background of the construction of Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone which has become the national strategy, Shandong Province in accordance with national division "one blue and one yellow" and "one circle area" economic zone, this paper study respectively potential trade, trade efficiency and trade input of the four economic zones. On the condition that the trade input is unchanged, Shandong Province export trade growth is mainly caused by the trade potential, then Shandong Province export trade growth is sustainable; if Shandong Province export trade growth is mainly caused by the increase of trade input, Shandong Province export trade growth is not sustainable. According to the empirical study result, trade potential in each region of Shandong province is rising, regional trade input fluctuates but tends to be stable, the regional trade efficiency declines, export growth is mainly driven by the trade potential, as a result Shandong Province export trade growth is stable,that is sustainable.