The Prediction And Analysis Of Local Financial Support Capabilities Of Basic Old-age Insurance For Urban And Rural Residents In Shandong Province

With the intensification of aging population in our country, the pension issue is getting more and more people’s attention. As an important part of social pension insurance, the basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents has attracted more and more attention of our country and people. Because of the implementation of the system having just a short time, it is not nearly perfect in terms of specific subsidies division of responsibilities. So it is particularly important to predict and analyze the financial support capabilities at all levels of local government and to put forward reasonable proposals.In this paper, the financial burden level(subsidies and fiscal revenue ratio) is calculated as an indicator of financial support capability. The heavier fiscal subsidy is, the lower financial support is. On the contrary, the lighter the burden of subsidies is, the higher the financial support ability is. Taking Shandong Province for example, and based on the prediction for insured population and treatment population of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents of Shandong Province in 2014-2025 and its 17 cities by PADIS-INT, one of the international population forecast models, and according to the current financial subsidies which have been made appropriate adjustments, this paper predicts the financial subsidies of Shandong Province and 17 cities’ cities and Counties governments; Then it predicts the corresponding year’s revenue of Shandong Province and 17 cities by curve trend prediction method; Ultimately this paper predicts the level of local government financial burden of the basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents, and according the result of prediction, measure the ability of local financial support. After analysis of the results of the prediction, this paper puts forward reasonable proposals for local government financial subsidies for the basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents of Shandong Province, and provides a reference for other regions in our country: Because the provincial financial support ability is higher, we should increase its subsidies to cut down the financial burden of the city and country; and due to financial support capabilities of 17 cities not balanced, we should make the responsibility at all levels of governments clear, to ensure that the basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents is as fair as possible in different cities.The courage of this paper is not limited to “new rural insurance”, but including the urban basic endowment insurance. This paper is based on the basic old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents, and taking Shandong Province for example to research local financial support ability. In this paper, I respectively predict the financial support ability of Shandong Province and its 17 cities; and I come to some conclusions and suggestions with strong practical significance.