Research On Financial Crisis Warning Of Listed Companies In Equipment Manufacturing Industry In China

Accompany with economic globalization, the growing international and domestic markets bring boundless business chances, but it also brings endless financial risks, which ultimately leads to financial crisis or even bankruptcy. Ma Yun said, referring to the way of company’s business, “when a company has too much money and too many chances, it is most feasible to be inaccurate. A leader should not only care for opportunities, but focus on the risk and avoid it as much as possible”. How to predict and find the crisis early and achieve the healthy and rapid development is not only the focus of listed companies, but also the imperious needs of stakeholders.Equipment manufacturing industry is the fundamental, strategic and pillar industry of the manufacturing industry, with the strong congenital advantage of high economic constitution, industrial correlation and strong absorption force of employment. It is the backbone of the national economy and the important pillar of the development of the industrial economy. However, there are some matters in our country’s equipment manufacturing industry, including unreasonable internal structure, low industrial concentration, weak independent innovation ability and bad market strain ability, which will affect the production and operation management of the enterprise and even lead to enterprise’s financial crisis if it cannot be settled in a timely manner.With the reference of domestic and international scholar’s studies, based on the theory of modern financial management, this essay puts motherboard pure a-share listed companies of equipment manufacturing industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen as the research object, researches 100 listed companies of equipment manufacturing industry as training samples(including 25 ST and 75 no ST) and chooses 25 financial indicators and 10 non-financial indicators. At last, through the empirical test, the 9 ultimate indicators are selected to enter regression to set up the financial crisis prediction binary logistic regression models. And then the essay uses H-L test and 40 listed companies of equipment manufacturing industry(including 10 ST and 30 no ST) as the test sample to respectively implement the statistical test and empirical test. The result is that the prediction ability of the model is very satisfactory, and when the sample size reduces model still has the stable prediction effect. Meanwhile the closer at the same time as the financial crisis time, prediction accuracy of the model is higher, and thus more embodies the multi-period warning and long-term warning. Finally combining with the related problems and the present situation in our country, the paper puts forward some policy advices, points out limitations of this study and has a prospect for the next step of work.