| With the rapid development and continuous improvement of China’s capital markets, the number of listed companies is increasing largely. To the end of2011, the number of A-share listed companies is2319in Shanghai and Shenzhen exchange. This poses a serious challenge for regulatory authorities. Survival of the best is an everlasting rule in economic environment and market competition. Financial crisis or bankruptcy of listed companies will not only affect the interest of shareholders, creditors, investors, managers and staff, but also affect the economics and capital market of their countries, and its butterfly effect cannot be underestimated.Mayun said"a company is most likely to make mistakes in two cases, one is facing to too much money, the other is facing to too many chances, CEO shouldn’t pay attention to opportunities, because opportunities are everywhere, CEO should focus on the risk and avoid it as much as possible", research about Financial early-warning has both academic value and practical value. More researchers begin to pay attention to this topic. It is significant for China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Stock Exchange, intermediaries, investors and the interests of all parties, and even the company’s management to evaluate the listed companies and find its financial crisis caused by various reasons. We should choose the warning variables and establish a scientific financial crisis early warning system for monitoring the financial situation in the use of financial data and related information of listed companies.With the continuous development of economics and management theory, and with the improvement of research methods, the research about financial early warning is accordingly developing. It includes data study and case study, and theory research is advancing. Currently, there are two directions about financial early-warning research; one is about the necessity and feasibility of warning from the angle of market supervision and rational investment, the other is paying attention to Operability based on the large amounts of data.(1) The theory of the financial early warning and variable selection is not enough. The existing literature is mostly based on a certain level or an indicator for the warning of financial crisis. Researchers pay more attention to application of models. But their system is not able to fully explain the reasons for selection of all kinds of indicators. So we need theoretical basis which is more rigorously and logically.(2) The transparency of financial crisis warning information is considered inadequately. In China’s Company Law, Stock Listing Rules (September2008the Sixth Amendment) has ST and SP system, the management of listed companies and their relevant departments will operate financial data to avoid losses or three consecutive losses. Warning variables selection is depending on the financial report which will be artificially distorted. Especially the Accrual basis is using now.(3) The early warning variables selection is based on the experiential research. But the relationship between warning variables and non-financial indicators is less concerned.This dissertation is based on the literature about financial crisis, financial warning and variables selection at home and abroad. Then the dissertation pays attention to the complexity of financial warning variable selection on the basis of the clear concept and nature of financial crisis from a narrow angel. For building a complete theoretical foundation, the dissertation uses economics theory and management theory to explain financial early warning and variable selection fully. On this basis, the dissertation chooses to make a theoretical analysis about financial early warning variable. For analyzing the company’s financial early warning variables selection, we choose the financial perspective and consider the macroeconomic factors and micro factors, financial factors and non-financial factors, then to build the framework of the listed companies’ financial early warning variables. We use logistic regression analysis and the validity of judgment to make empirical test, and based on the theoretical analysis and empirical test results, we make conclusions and propose a research revelation. The full text is divided into seven parts, each part of the specific contents are as follows:Chapter1is the introduction. This part mainly expounds the basic problem of this dissertation, including research background and significance, research objectives and contents, as well as the research methods.Chapter2is the literature review. First the dissertation reviewed the classic study on the financial crisis, financial warning and warning variable selection at home and abroad. On the basis of the clear concept and nature of the financial crisis, we summarized the views about financial crisis, financial early warning and variable selections. Then we summarized the conclusions of experience research of the financial crisis at home and abroad, and then we make a literature review, and proposed the future research direction.Chapter3is the theoretical basis of the financial early warning and warning variable selection. Financial early warning theory has its theoretical foundation, we summarizes the theoretical system of financial early warning related subjects. These theories are built on the basis of the core concepts. These core concepts are organized orderly, and then the theoretical foundation of the company’s financial warnng is formed. In this dissertation, financial environment is the distinguishing mark, the theoretical perspective related to the company’s financial early warning of the macro and micro levels is the main line, especially these theories and the financial early warning and the variable selection problem is to be propelled contact, closely linked to the focus of theoretical foundation to further consolidate the financial early warning and its variable selection problem.Chapter4is the financial early warning and early warning variable selection theoretical analysis and framework. In the guiding of related theory, according to the environmental objectives theory, we analyze the various incentives of company’s financial crisis, and expound the common features of the listed companies’ financial crisis. Through the induction of the domestic and international research results and the questionnaire survey results, we try to build the framework of the variable system of listed companies’ financial warning.Chapter5is an empirical study of financial crisis variable selection. In this dissertation, the sample is A shares for the first time ST from2006to2008in Shanghai and Shenzhen and Shenzhen exchanges. Then pair by industry, the share capital, and250companies meet the requirements. We use logistic regression analysis model, then test the30early warning variables effectiveness in the year to three years prior to ST from six angles. This section includes the object of study, research sample design and data sources, variables and research methods, logistic regression analysis model as well as T-1-T-3early warning variables significantly summary.Chapter6is a validation test study of the financial crisis warning variable selecton. In this dissertation, the sample is still A shares for the first time ST from2009to2010in Shanghai and Shenzhen and Shenzhen exchanges. Then pair by industry, the share capital, and136companies meet the requirements. We use logistic regression analysis model to make a significant test about effectiveness of early warning variables. We make a robustness analysis from a progressive study period and expanding the sample path.Chapter7is Conclusions and Implications. First, we sum up the above theoretical and empirical findings. Secondly, according to the conclusions, we proposed revelation. Finally, we summarize the research contributions of this dissertation, and look to the future research direction.The innovation of this dissertation is:Firstly, the theoretical Innovation:(1) in this research, the theoretical basis of financial warning variables selection become more fruitful. The company’s financial early warning environmental economics is distinguishing mark. In the macro and micro levels, we choose economics and management theories. And we try to related these theories based on the theoretical perspective of the company’s financial early warning.(2) We do independent research about the warning variable selection question and to build the listed companies’ financial warning variable frame system. Financial early warning variable choice theory as a guide, according to the environmental objectives ideas, clarifying the macro factors and micro factors, financial factors and non-financial factors, from the perspective of the company’s financial ability we try to build the framework of listed companies’ financial early warning variable.Secondly, the empirical innovation:(1) the rigor of sample selection and data interception. In order to ensure the truth of the conclusion, this study is different from similar studies, the paper carefully select the study sample, and to be fully demonstrated to maintain the logical consistency of definition and theory on the basis of reasons for selection of the sample; to break through in terms of data interception, in accordance with the same industry, the share capital of the scale of the same or similar principle, directly from2006to2008for three consecutive years for the first time the ST companies be matching of the sample group, a rigorous analysis of125paired samples ST previous year to three years before the original financial data and30warning variables carefully calculated to minimize process variation. After the descriptive statistics and significance test, researching conclusions are:Firstly, the test of significance of α=5%, Three years prior to the previous year of ST, the number of variables of financial early warning is an increasing trend year by year, the nearer to ST, the greater of the significant difference, especially in the two years before the ST. This conclusion is a good interpretation of the reasons for why many early warning studies are relatively effective even they select variables from a different perspective. Secondly, the ST three years prior to the previous year’s warning intersection of variables:the investment cash inflow structure, the investment cash outflow structure, the debt ratio, current ratio, return on net assets, earnings per share, per share of net assets and total asset turnover has high significant difference between the sample group. Thirdly, the explanation of six angles of early warning variables is strong enough, the earning power of early-warning variable was undoubtedly the first choice, the cash flows variables are more when closer to ST, the other early warning variables is complement each other. In the Binary Logistic warning model, early warning effectiveness is further proved.(2) Further research. In order to strengthen the practical significance, We compare2009,2010data for the first time three years before the ST companies and matched sample of136early-warning variable re-enter the early warning model. Then we find that the early warning variables and Logistic model has strong predictive ability, in ST the previous year and the previous two years prediction accuracy rate is almost90%, prediction accuracy rate of more than85%. |
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