Research On Regional Distribution Of China’s Coal Production Capacity

China is a big consumer of coal. For a long time the proportion of coal in the consumption structure of energy up to about 70%, and it has made an indelible contribution for china’s economic and social development. With the transformation of China’s economic development model, reduction of market demand, the impact of international quality resources and excessive investment in fixed assets, coal overcapacity situation is even more serious. Reasonable capacity planning is guarantee for national energy security. Coal is known as “industrial food”, it is very import for the industrial system, as well as the sustainable development of coal regions. The predict tendency of future reasonable productivity of coal industry, is very important for our country and coal companies.The rational planning of Regional coal production capacity is a complex task. The coal industry is constraints by resources, environment, economic and so on. This paper is based on many literatures that are about domestic coal production forecast. First of all, the author collected and a large amount of historical data. The sector analysis is used for total demand for coal in the next 15 years. And then, the country is divided into four regions. The author make this conclusion is based on “Well” model distributed and “Fourteen coal base”. At last, the environment as the main indicator, select scenario analysis as the method to predict.Finally, the paper will give some advice in different levels.