The Research Of Highway Listed Company Financial Risk Early Warning Model

As the country vigorously promotes infrastructure construction, highway construction has been developed rapidly and fast At the same time, because of the complexity, systematic, technology intensive and sociality of the expressway project operation, highway listed company faces the more and more risk. The possibility of economic loss caused by risk and the difficulty of the risk management decision also increases. In view of our country highway listed company’s financial risk early warning is still in its infancy, the company’s internal financial personnel and management personnel risk consciousness is weak, the study of financial risk early warning system has great practical significance.This thesis is based on the enterprise early warning theory and the grey system theory and risk control theory, widely reads highway listed company financial risk early warning theory and practice research literature, through on-the-spot investigation and an expert’s opinion, systematically researches the highway listed company financial risk early warning model. First of all, analyzes highway listed company development environment and financial characteristics, then expounds the financial risk of highway listed company and the causes of it, thinks that the main performance of highway listed company financial risk is financing risk, investment risk, daily operational risk and the risk caused by incident. The main reasons are: company asset-liability ratio is high, financial management system is not perfect, internal control execution does not reach the designated position industrial policy changes and fluctuations in the economic environment and the occurrence of natural disasters. Secondly this thesis constructs highway listed company financial risk warning model based on financial information and non-financial information. This paper uses the efficacy coefficient method and expert scoring method to measure quantitative index and qualitative index, using analytic hierarchy process (ahp) to determine the index weight, establishes the perfect financial risk early warning index system On the basis of comprehensive warning index, using grey prediction model to achieve the company’s financial risk profile of short-term prediction, gray financial risk warning model is constructed. Finally selects 2012-2013 quarterly financial and non-financial indicators data of Modern Investment Shares Limited Liability Company as the research sample, using the established model of the company’s financial situation for the real-time monitoring, analyzes the company facing financial risk, and forecasts company’s financial situation in the next two quarters, and proposes the corresponding financial risk prevention advice.