Research On The Problem Of Financial Early-warning Based On Decomposition Of Cash Flow Item In Listing Corporation

Financial early warning is an important way of enterprise financial risk prediction, to ensure the normal operation and management of enterprises, and lay a solid foundation for the healthy development of enterprises. With the implementation of new initiatives to Shanghai Hong Kong, bank deposit insurance system, to get more chances benefits at the same time in the enterprise, the risk is increased, the current trust and local government debt default have been sounding the alarm, a very important reason is that the cash flow insufficiently, the enterprise in the choice of investment mode failed to consider carefully, investment income is unable to recover and debt unpayable phenomenon, cause the enterprise to fall into financial crisis. Therefore, the relevant research on decomposition of cash flow item, in China’s listing Corporation forecast financial risk, plays a more and more important role to improve risk control system.This paper firstly make clear to the financial early warning and decomposition of cash flow item concept, expounded the related theories of financial early warning. Secondly, based on the 94 special treatment listing Corporation screening, to determine the 85 listing Corporation 255 basic sample 2012-2014 years, according to the ratio of 1:1 were selected as the listing Corporation is not special treatment data sample ratio, a total of 170 listing Corporation and 510 sample. After the construction of financial system from the decomposition of cash flow indicators point of view, in which the decomposition of the cash flow indexes to build the traditional financial indicators as the basis, carries on the improvement to the index, carries on from the debt paying ability, operating ability, profitability, cash structure, development ability and earnings per share six aspects, constructing 18 related indicators into the indicator screening, by analysis of 18 indexes related to statistical analysis draws 6 principal component index principal component. Finally, the principal component index to construct the model and warning model of three years prior to that crisis occurs, early warning model results obtained. The experimental results show that: decomposition of cash flow item models have reached a good level in predicting effect,model fitting test results based on the more close to the plight of the year; the effect of forecast model, the more accurate the prediction effect of trouble two years ago, which is obviously superior to the plight of three years ago, the predicted effect a year ago is close to effect two years ago; operating cash net interest margin, operating cash flow load interest coverage ratio, borrowing cash asset ratio, debt ratio of borrowing cash four decomposition of cash flow indexes of the absolute values are reached above 0.90, indicating its good prediction effect, four index represents cash profitability, the ability of debt cash paying and cash structure, explained in the financial crisis prediction of enterprises, pay attention to the ability, profit ability and cash debt structure is the key.