Financial Crisis Warning Research Of Listed Company In China Based On The Perspective Of Cash Flow

Along with the development of global economic integration， competitionamong enterprises gets more and more fierce， and there are so many differencesbetween different industries， the survival environment the enterprises faced also hasa lot of uncertain factors， The financial crisis is the risks faced by enterprisesmonetization performance， the problem that how to make scientific， accurateforecasts and take appropriate countermeasures when the sign of the financialsituation has come out. The crisis is urgent to be solved for all the enterprises. Thoughthe financial tsunami of2008has already past， the impact to enterprises of thetsunami doesn’t disappear. Enterprises with good book profits collapsed in thefinancial crisis is a wake-up call to the enterprise operator，once again，the financialearly-warning associated with cash flow. To maintain efficient cash liquidity hasbecome the important rules of enterprise survival. Therefore it is very necessary toestablish an effective financial warning system to guard against enterprise financialrisk. In this paper，which is put forward is that to build financial early warning modelfor empirical research by using cash flow index as measurement standard to provideimportant information for company’s survival.In this paper， the logistic regression model is used on the basis of the principalcomponent analysis to predict the probability of financial crisis， and used thecombined method of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to study themanufacturing and the services. By collecting relevant data of the three yearspreceding the crisis of listed companies， with the aid of Excel and SPSS19.0software indexes such as filtering， data statistics and calculation， model test， thefinal conclusion. Research shows that:(1) in the manufacturing industry， the closerthe crisis，the company’s forecast accuracy is higher， they are82.6%，86.96%and91.3%， this can also explain that forecast cash flow index has the informationcontent and timeliness of financial crisis， and its information content increasing overtime.(2) in the service sector， the determination accuracy to financial crisis of thecompany’s were75%and88.9%， also illustrates the forecast cash flow index has theinformation content and timeliness of financial crisis.(3) in the forecast model of twoindustries， the cash flow ratio and total debt ratio， the multiple of cash flow interestsafeguard， operating income cash ratio have outstanding contribution to theprediction，suggesting that business operators should pay attention to change of thesefour indicators.