Research On Real Estate Enterprise Financial Early Warning Based On Free Cash Flow

The economic globalization intensifies the market environment,can maintain the healthy operation of the financial situation of enterprises,can help enterprises to get a seat in the market,improve the market competitiveness.Therefore,the financial early warning for enterprises has an important role.The real estate industry is a pillar industry,the real estate enterprise's operation status is related to the effective operation of the entire national economy,so the real estate industry's financial early warning research is particularly important.Study on early warning of financial crisis began in 1930 s,financial ratios can effectively identify the financial situation of enterprises,in previous studies,scholars usually use the corporate performance indicators to judge the financial situation of the enterprise,that enterprise's profit level is insufficient is the main cause of enterprise financial crisis.However,there is a contradictory phenomenon in the market,the financial crisis enterprises in the financial statements to show a good level of profitability,but the cash flow tends to be negative.Only on the basis of the performance level of the enterprise to determine the enterprise's financial situation may lead to distortion of financial early-warning,may bring serious financial losses to the enterprise,insufficient,and free cash flow index can compensate for the performance result,based on the real estate early-warning refers to the free cash flow into the standard system,can provide a more accurate the enterprise financial early warning.After the real estate enterprise's own characteristics are studied,establish the financial early-warning index system based on free cash flow method,principal component analysis and Logistic regression analysis using the construction of China's free cash flow of real estate enterprise financial early-warning model based on,mainly divided into the following seven parts:The first part is the introduction part.This part first analyzes the background and significance of the topic,the research content of this paper,research methods aredescribed,the relevant research results at home and abroad are reviewed,the analysis of this paper may be the innovation point.The second part analyzes the general situation of the real estate enterprises and the financial risks of our country,and analyzes the characteristics and development of the real estate enterprises in China.The third part is the theoretical basis of free cash flow,corporate financial warning.The concept and theory of free cash flow,corporate financial early-warning is reviewed,provides a theoretical foundation for the study of financial early-warning of free cash flow,and the superiority of the free cash flow is applied to the study of financial early-warning are summarized.The fourth part is the design of the financial early warning indicator system based on free cash flow.This part combines the characteristics of real estate enterprises,identifies the main financial risks of real estate enterprises,and establishes the financial index system and non financial index system which can effectively carry out the early warning of real estate enterprises.The fifth part is the construction of real estate early-warning model based on free cash flow,the indicators were selected by using SPSS 22.0 software for all indexes of normal distribution test,T test and non parametric test,screening index was significantly higher.By means of principal component analysis and Logistic regression analysis,the financial early-warning model of real estate enterprises was established.Then the goodness of fit test,the model coefficient test and the original sample regression test were used to test the Logistic financial early-warning model.The sixth part is the conclusion and prospect.The research of this paper is summarized,and the deficiencies and prospects of the research are put forward.