The Study On Prediction Of Development Land Demand Of Fusong County

With high speed of our country economy development; the urbanization level enhances unceasingly and the accelerating process of industrialization promotes the increase of development land demand, the contradiction between supply and demand of land became apparent nowadays. So, how to scientifically reasonable construction land demand forecast, to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of land, so that not only guarantee the socio-economic development of the construction land demand, but also effectively prevent the construction land sprawl out important. Solve the problem with land supply and land demand. Fusong County is typical northeast mountain area in China, most land in here is forest, development land in Fusong is relative scattered, more focus on lowland flat topography and water source. Fusong County social and economic rapid development in recent years, forced increasing of development land, but face to the fact, most of land in Fusong is forest reserve except the arable land, not conducive to the development and utilization. It may destroy the ecological environment during reclamation of forest, so the increase will be cultivated land, development land will inevitably lead to reduce the cultivated land area. Compared with other plain county development land distribution is relatively scattered. Especially since 2009 Fusong Changbai Mountain scenic West Park and the development and construction, resulting in a rapid increase in construction land, construction of arable land increased and decreased the escalation of conflict. Therefore, this paper will select Fusong County as the research area of construction land demand prediction research, and this paper has certain representativeness for the using of land. The main conclusions of this paper including:(1)With the collecting of data of using land in Fusong, the result shows us: From 2005 to 2012, the development land in Fusong Country increased and increase at least 1249.41 ha during that time. Most of development land were used for residential areas and the mine, land for traffic is less than that, the water conservancy facilities is the least of that. After 2009 by development land 10229.80 ha to 11168.52 ha in 2012(2) Respectively, from the demographic factors, economic factors in the selection at the end of the total population, urbanization rate, GDP, industrial production, urban fixed asset investment, fiscal revenue, total cost of the first industry share of GDP, the total cost of the second and third industry had a share of GDP, urban residents’ disposable income, per capita net income of farmers and other 10 index factor for primary factor, driving factor analysis of the impact of fusong county land for construction purposes, data analysis software SPSS correlation analysis results show that in addition to the total cost of the first industry of GDP and negatively related to use construction land, the other factor and construction land all present the positive correlation; Modified through multivariate regression model, adopt the method of stepwise regression to eliminate collinearity strong factor, finally determine the urbanization rate and urban residents’ disposable income as the independent variables of regression model, build multivariate regression model, goodness of fit of the model is 0.992, and through the test, show that the model is accuracy; Amount of development land will change over time as a Grey system, Grey system theory was used to construct the GM(1, 1) model, from the perspective of the reduction accuracy of model, the fitting results of the model and the actual value of error is small, reaching the level of the model precision grade requirements; According to the trend of the development land using the trend extrapolation method to predict Fusong County development land demand in 2015 and 2020. Studies show that this forecast method is more suitable for this particular area of Fusong County.(3) By comparing the analysis of three methods to get the result, and combining the Fusong County social and economic development trend, the comprehensive consideration, make sure the development land will be 11782.94 ha in Fusong County; this number will be 13161.15 ha in the year 2020.The total number of new construction land is 1992.63 ha during the year 2013-2020 in Fusong County. On the whole reflects the urgency of land for social economic developing in Fusong County at the next few years.