The Analysis Of The Demand For Long-Term Care Insurance In China

China formally has entered the aging society since the year of 2001, and the aging problem is more and more serious, according to the Statistical Yearbook of the display at the end of 2011, China’s elderly population aged 60 and above is close to 185 million people, accounting for 13.7 of the total population. With the aging population, physical function of the elderly degradation and increased incidence of chronic diseases, the care need of disabled elderly is constantly increasing; however, with the changes of our social economy, the accelerating rural-urban migration, and the changes of the way of living,as well as the implementation of one-child policy, China’s family structure is beginning to appear miniaturization and core, which lead to the traditional family model of care in our country suffered a severe challenge; aging population makes health care expenditures per capita income of the elderly proportion also increased significantly, while the income of the elderly already dropped, but they needs to spend high medical costs. Thus, the dramatic increase in the aging population, changing and increasing health care costs of the elderly home care model, making long-term care insurance needs by individual needs has become a social demand, and long-term care insurance in China is still a new insurance, so the analysis of the needs of long-term care insurance is a prerequisite for its development, this paper plans to analysis the need of long-term care insurance in China.This paper firstly introduces the long-term care insurance research background, content. Secondly through comprehensive comparison the social content of long-term care insurance, insurance demand of Germany and Japan. Then through 2839 questionnaires bivariate Logistic regression analysis, we find 10 significant factors which impact of long-term care insurance demand:characteristics factors (regions and age), health factors (current health), life factors (family size number, the number of sons and the way of living), economic factors (household income) and cognitive factors (whether willing to go to a nursing home when you are old, whether to participate in the other insurance and whether know the nursing care insurance or not). Finally, this paper analysis and forecasts the demand of long-term care insurance in our country form the year of 2015 to 2060, through predicting future disability rate by the number of older people, it find that the demand population of long-term care of our country in the next 45 years, and predict different levels of disability care costs of the elderly, which can measure the total cost of long-term care insurance demand in the next 45 years. The study found that in 2015 the total cost of our long-term care insurance market demand is about 185.671 billion yuan, accounting for 0.28% of GDP; by 2045 the total cost of long-term care insurance demand is the more than 1 trillion yuan, about accounting for 0.51% of GDP; by 2060 the total cost of long-term care insurance demand will reach 2.624885 trillion yuan, the proportion of GDP will reach 0.67%.Based on the above conclusions, this paper put forward policy recommendations form four aspects,which are raising public awareness of the nursing care insurance, nursing insurance laws and regulations, health insurance and nursing care insurance combines.