Empirical Analysis On Financial Demand Of Long-Term Care Insurance

Many ultimate problems emerged in the late 20th century, one of which is the aging population. China is a country with a large population whose aging are very serious now. Current economy of China is not developed, so the quick enter into aging society is a great challenge to our society and economy. Under the situation that social structure and family pattern is changing, family care function is gradually weakening, how to solve the problem of elderly care so that they can live comfortably and their children can concentrate on work is an urgent problem of the whole society to be solved. Therefore; it becomes more and more important to develop the long-term care insurance actively. To understand and analyze the demand willingness and total financial demand of long-term care insurance of the elderly will provide the necessary reference for the feasibility of the implementation of the system.This paper first introduces the research background, theoretical and practical significance, research contents and methods, as well as research ideas and frameworks, then it expound the innovation and difficulties which may be encountered. Secondly, the paper describes the research status at home and abroad through the literature review, and introduces risk management theory, demand and supply theory, law of large numbers theory and control theory, which laid the theoretical foundation for the study on the financial demand of long-term care insurance. Thirdly, the paper uses SPSS software to analyze influencing factors of demand of long-term care insurance. By making binary logistic regression of selected factors and demand willingness we come to the conclusion:eight variables include education level, family income, awareness level of the long-term care insurance, area, other insurance, age, number of daughters and health status have a significant impact on demand willingness of long-term care insurance. Because demand willingness of long-term care insurance of the elderly is influenced by many factors, it needs government to establish compulsory long-term care insurance system which can reflect the government’s social risk management responsibilities. Fourthly, the paper uses macro-simulation models to estimate the financial demand of long-term care insurance and come to the conclusion:the total financial demand of long-term care insurance in China is within the normal range. In 2015 the financial demand will account for 0.46% of GDP, then the proportion increase gradually to 1.15% in 2050.Finally, based on the above findings, six points of suggestion are proposed:First, establish the compulsory long-term care insurance system; Second, formulate laws and regulations to coordinate department functions; Third, intensify propaganda to increase demand willingness; Fourth, establish incentive mechanism and increase subsidies; Fifth, build a multi-channel fund-raising mechanism; Sixth, standardize long-term care services.