The Influence Of Export Commodity Structure On The Carbon Emissions

Since the 21st century, rapid development of foreign trade has promoted rapid economic growth in these three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong. At the same time, the rapid growth of export trade is an important factor in promoting the growing of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Carbon emissions of export goods in these three provinces are larger due to the export products which concentrate in the industries with energy-consuming, high pollution, labor-intensive and low technology. Meanwhile, export products’proportion of environmental pollution-intensive and energy-intensive industries is high. Such structure leads to more carbon emissions and is not conducive to the development of low carbon economy. In addition, some developed countries also restrict high-carbon products and implement the carbon tax policy. Therefore, structure of export commodity in the three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong should be changed in order to coping with the trend of domestic and international trade development. It is also a path to the sustainable development of export trade.Adopting the theoretical and empirical analysis method, this thesis analyzes how the export commodity structure affects the carbon emissions. Firstly, on the basis of applying the existing research results and combing the related theory, we analyze the mechanism of the impact of the export commodity structure on the carbon emissions from the angle of theories of the changing dynamics in export commodity structure and comparative advantage. Secondly, through a large number of charts, we analyze the evolution of export commodity structure and change trend of carbon emissions. This paper has based on expended resources data of 16 departments from 2000 to 2012, and calculates each department’s carbon dioxide emissions using the method of input-output. Then it analyzes the present status of the export commodity structure and carbon dioxide emissions and reveals the problems existing in the export commodity structure. Next, this article chooses the related annual data in order to analyze the relationship between export commodity structure and carbon dioxide emissions in these three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong using co-integration test and the ADF test. Then we analyze empirically the dynamic effect of the export commodity structure on carbon dioxide emissions of these three provinces using the Time-varying Parameter Model structured by the State Space Model.The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between component of export trade and carbon dioxide emissions in these three provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong which presenting the dynamic change, but it also exists a certain difference in influence coefficient. It shows based on the Kalman Filtering estimation of parameter using the State Space Model. The export commodity structure of Jiangsu province is more advantageous to develop a low carbon economy than provinces of Zhejiang, Guangzhou. The main export products are low value-added and labor-intensive which contains the low level technology in Zhejiang province that intensifies the pressure to reduce emissions. In Guangdong province, carbon dioxide emissions in the industry which accounting for a large proportion of industry in processing trade are much bigger. The processing trade should be upgraded and transformed in order to facilitate development of low carbon economy. Finally, we put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions aiming at solving and optimizing the problems existing in the export commodity structure.